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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.7%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,201,401 Vol.

JD Vance 17.7%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,201,401 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,510,504 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,261,090 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,433,369 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,464,598 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,082,553 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,531,874 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,621,299 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,332,130 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,663,882 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,553,716 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,470,256 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,135,835 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,950,335 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,701,798 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,816,521 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,141,102 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,390,450 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,097,372 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,824,722 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,318,273 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,474,890 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,689,441 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,484,954 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,135,425 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,866,265 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,462,455 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,650,156 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,927,737 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,576,413 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,393,882 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,633,158 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,476,065 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,263,076 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,199,207 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,311,285 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,393,792 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.7% implied probability on Polymarket, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio rising to 10.7% amid recent GOP positioning. Over the past week, Vance's odds have plummeted below 20%—the closest gap yet—as Newsom gains on Democratic nominee markets where he leads at around 24%, fueled by trader concerns over Trump administration foreign policy tensions, including Iran escalations shadowing Republican prospects. This open-seat race, constrained by term limits barring Donald Trump, remains tightly contested pre-primaries, hinging on 2026 midterm results, early polling averages, and party convention dynamics; strong midterm showings or scandals could create frontrunner separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,201,401
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.7% implied probability on Polymarket, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.7%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio rising to 10.7% amid recent GOP positioning. Over the past week, Vance's odds have plummeted below 20%—the closest gap yet—as Newsom gains on Democratic nominee markets where he leads at around 24%, fueled by trader concerns over Trump administration foreign policy tensions, including Iran escalations shadowing Republican prospects. This open-seat race, constrained by term limits barring Donald Trump, remains tightly contested pre-primaries, hinging on 2026 midterm results, early polling averages, and party convention dynamics; strong midterm showings or scandals could create frontrunner separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,201,401
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $480.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.