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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$483,549,062 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$483,549,062 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,595,120 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$8,008,973 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,468,406 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,534,746 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,103,877 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,646,021 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,558,675 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,360,522 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,678,962 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,993,931 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,497,916 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,963,088 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,454,594 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,746,899 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,847,881 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,417,269 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,199,128 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,860,595 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,182,626 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,343,744 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,519,710 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,478,300 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,785,517 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,613,636 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,181,758 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,955,010 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,727,641 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,990,628 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,636,650 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,416,990 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,675,090 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,537,876 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,418,266 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,256,351 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,366,411 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,532,905 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads early Polymarket odds for the 2028 presidential election at 17.7% implied probability, buoyed by his recent victory in the CPAC straw poll with 53% support—his second straight win among conservative activists—reflecting incumbency advantages as the sitting VP under President Trump and strong GOP base consolidation. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4%, bolstered by commanding leads in March Democratic primary polls, including a double-digit edge over Kamala Harris in California, positioning him as the traders' Democratic frontrunner amid a fragmented field. Marco Rubio's 10.3% share surged post-CPAC, where he placed second at 35%. The tight race persists due to the early stage, absence of primaries, and open fields on both sides; separation could emerge from 2026 midterms, party conventions, or Trump's endorsement signals before his term limit.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$483,549,062
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads early Polymarket odds for the 2028 presidential election at 17.7% implied probability, buoyed by his recent victory in the CPAC straw poll with 53% support—his second straight win among conservative activists—reflecting incumbency advantages as the sitting VP under President Trump and strong GOP base consolidation. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4%, bolstered by commanding leads in March Democratic primary polls, including a double-digit edge over Kamala Harris in California, positioning him as the traders' Democratic frontrunner amid a fragmented field. Marco Rubio's 10.3% share surged post-CPAC, where he placed second at 35%. The tight race persists due to the early stage, absence of primaries, and open fields on both sides; separation could emerge from 2026 midterms, party conventions, or Trump's endorsement signals before his term limit.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$483,549,062
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $483.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.