Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies, reflecting its narrow lead in the latest Ipsos poll from March 21-22 showing 14.6% vote intention versus 13.2% for Renovación Popular (RP) and 9.6% for Juntos por el Perú (JP). This positioning stems from proportional representation via open party lists and D'Hondt allocation across 27 constituencies, where FP's edge amid high fragmentation and undecided voters (over 20% in recent surveys) suggests the largest bloc without a majority. The tight presidential race between FP's Keiko Fujimori and RP's Rafael López Aliaga, both polling around 17%, provides coattail effects, while JP gains from left-wing support; the April 12 first-round vote remains pivotal amid voter priorities on crime and corruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPeru Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
Peru Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
FP 38%
RP 23%
JP 22.8%
APP 4.4%
$26,949 Vol.
$26,949 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
FP
38%
PL
<1%
AP
<1%
APP
4%
AvP
<1%
RP
23%
SP
3%
PP
<1%
JP
23%
FP 38%
RP 23%
JP 22.8%
APP 4.4%
$26,949 Vol.
$26,949 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
FP
$3,315 Vol.
38%
PL
$706 Vol.
<1%
AP
$7,264 Vol.
<1%
APP
$2,096 Vol.
4%
AvP
$593 Vol.
<1%
RP
$2,008 Vol.
23%
SP
$2,478 Vol.
3%
PP
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
JP
$7,243 Vol.
23%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies, reflecting its narrow lead in the latest Ipsos poll from March 21-22 showing 14.6% vote intention versus 13.2% for Renovación Popular (RP) and 9.6% for Juntos por el Perú (JP). This positioning stems from proportional representation via open party lists and D'Hondt allocation across 27 constituencies, where FP's edge amid high fragmentation and undecided voters (over 20% in recent surveys) suggests the largest bloc without a majority. The tight presidential race between FP's Keiko Fujimori and RP's Rafael López Aliaga, both polling around 17%, provides coattail effects, while JP gains from left-wing support; the April 12 first-round vote remains pivotal amid voter priorities on crime and corruption.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$26,949End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies, reflecting its narrow lead in the latest Ipsos poll from March 21-22 showing 14.6% vote intention versus 13.2% for Renovación Popular (RP) and 9.6% for Juntos por el Perú (JP). This positioning stems from proportional representation via open party lists and D'Hondt allocation across 27 constituencies, where FP's edge amid high fragmentation and undecided voters (over 20% in recent surveys) suggests the largest bloc without a majority. The tight presidential race between FP's Keiko Fujimori and RP's Rafael López Aliaga, both polling around 17%, provides coattail effects, while JP gains from left-wing support; the April 12 first-round vote remains pivotal amid voter priorities on crime and corruption.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Volume
$26,949End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies, reflecting its narrow lead in the latest Ipsos poll from March 21-22 showing 14.6% vote intention versus 13.2% for Renovación Popular (RP) and 9.6% for Juntos por el Perú (JP). This positioning stems from proportional representation via open party lists and D'Hondt allocation across 27 constituencies, where FP's edge amid high fragmentation and undecided voters (over 20% in recent surveys) suggests the largest bloc without a majority. The tight presidential race between FP's Keiko Fujimori and RP's Rafael López Aliaga, both polling around 17%, provides coattail effects, while JP gains from left-wing support; the April 12 first-round vote remains pivotal amid voter priorities on crime and corruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
28%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
22%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
40%
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Frequently Asked Questions