Recent polls from Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 22) show Fuerza Popular (FP) narrowly leading Renovación Popular (RP) in voter intention for congressional lists and the presidential race, positioning FP as trader consensus favorite at 37.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's 130-seat Chamber of Deputies on April 12. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and RP trail closely at 25.5% and 23%, reflecting their competitive showings as third-place contenders amid extreme fragmentation—over 30 parties and 20-30% undecided voters. Simulations based on February data project FP and RP atop seat counts, boosted by right-wing presidential frontrunners Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga, though high abstention risks and the 5% national threshold could shift pluralities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPeru Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
Peru Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
FP 38%
JP 30.4%
RP 23%
APP 11.2%
$26,949 Vol.
$26,949 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
FP
38%
PL
<1%
AP
<1%
APP
11%
AvP
<1%
RP
23%
SP
7%
PP
<1%
JP
26%
FP 38%
JP 30.4%
RP 23%
APP 11.2%
$26,949 Vol.
$26,949 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
FP
$3,315 Vol.
38%
PL
$706 Vol.
<1%
AP
$7,264 Vol.
<1%
APP
$2,096 Vol.
11%
AvP
$593 Vol.
<1%
RP
$2,008 Vol.
23%
SP
$2,478 Vol.
7%
PP
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
JP
$7,243 Vol.
26%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Recent polls from Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 22) show Fuerza Popular (FP) narrowly leading Renovación Popular (RP) in voter intention for congressional lists and the presidential race, positioning FP as trader consensus favorite at 37.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's 130-seat Chamber of Deputies on April 12. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and RP trail closely at 25.5% and 23%, reflecting their competitive showings as third-place contenders amid extreme fragmentation—over 30 parties and 20-30% undecided voters. Simulations based on February data project FP and RP atop seat counts, boosted by right-wing presidential frontrunners Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga, though high abstention risks and the 5% national threshold could shift pluralities.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$26,949End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Recent polls from Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 22) show Fuerza Popular (FP) narrowly leading Renovación Popular (RP) in voter intention for congressional lists and the presidential race, positioning FP as trader consensus favorite at 37.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's 130-seat Chamber of Deputies on April 12. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and RP trail closely at 25.5% and 23%, reflecting their competitive showings as third-place contenders amid extreme fragmentation—over 30 parties and 20-30% undecided voters. Simulations based on February data project FP and RP atop seat counts, boosted by right-wing presidential frontrunners Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga, though high abstention risks and the 5% national threshold could shift pluralities.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Volume
$26,949End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 22) show Fuerza Popular (FP) narrowly leading Renovación Popular (RP) in voter intention for congressional lists and the presidential race, positioning FP as trader consensus favorite at 37.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's 130-seat Chamber of Deputies on April 12. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and RP trail closely at 25.5% and 23%, reflecting their competitive showings as third-place contenders amid extreme fragmentation—over 30 parties and 20-30% undecided voters. Simulations based on February data project FP and RP atop seat counts, boosted by right-wing presidential frontrunners Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga, though high abstention risks and the 5% national threshold could shift pluralities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
39%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
22%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
38%
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Frequently Asked Questions