Trader consensus on Polymarket prices PPP securing 2 or 3 seats at 37-40.5% implied probabilities in South Korea's upcoming National Assembly by-elections, reflecting closely contested races across multiple districts amid President Yoon Suk-yeol's plummeting approval ratings below 20% following his short-lived martial law declaration on December 3 and subsequent backlash. Recent polls show Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidates leading in most vacancies triggered by resignations and legal issues, but PPP holds narrow edges in select swing districts due to local endorsements and voter turnout uncertainties. Key factors tipping the balance include ongoing impeachment proceedings against Yoon, candidate quality, and regional issues like economic pressures; the vote is scheduled soon, with any late scandals or mobilizations able to shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?
2 45%
3 43%
0 11%
1 7.5%
$19,299 Vol.
$19,299 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
0
11%
1
8%
2
40%
3
43%
4
4%
5
<1%
6+
2%
2 45%
3 43%
0 11%
1 7.5%
$19,299 Vol.
$19,299 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
0
$1,791 Vol.
11%
1
$2,063 Vol.
8%
2
$9,395 Vol.
40%
3
$1,317 Vol.
43%
4
$1,500 Vol.
4%
5
$786 Vol.
<1%
6+
$2,447 Vol.
2%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices PPP securing 2 or 3 seats at 37-40.5% implied probabilities in South Korea's upcoming National Assembly by-elections, reflecting closely contested races across multiple districts amid President Yoon Suk-yeol's plummeting approval ratings below 20% following his short-lived martial law declaration on December 3 and subsequent backlash. Recent polls show Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidates leading in most vacancies triggered by resignations and legal issues, but PPP holds narrow edges in select swing districts due to local endorsements and voter turnout uncertainties. Key factors tipping the balance include ongoing impeachment proceedings against Yoon, candidate quality, and regional issues like economic pressures; the vote is scheduled soon, with any late scandals or mobilizations able to shift outcomes.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
Volume
$19,299End Date
Jun 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 4:14 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices PPP securing 2 or 3 seats at 37-40.5% implied probabilities in South Korea's upcoming National Assembly by-elections, reflecting closely contested races across multiple districts amid President Yoon Suk-yeol's plummeting approval ratings below 20% following his short-lived martial law declaration on December 3 and subsequent backlash. Recent polls show Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidates leading in most vacancies triggered by resignations and legal issues, but PPP holds narrow edges in select swing districts due to local endorsements and voter turnout uncertainties. Key factors tipping the balance include ongoing impeachment proceedings against Yoon, candidate quality, and regional issues like economic pressures; the vote is scheduled soon, with any late scandals or mobilizations able to shift outcomes.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the People Power Party (PP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the People Power Party in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Volume
$19,299End Date
Jun 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 4:14 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices PPP securing 2 or 3 seats at 37-40.5% implied probabilities in South Korea's upcoming National Assembly by-elections, reflecting closely contested races across multiple districts amid President Yoon Suk-yeol's plummeting approval ratings below 20% following his short-lived martial law declaration on December 3 and subsequent backlash. Recent polls show Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidates leading in most vacancies triggered by resignations and legal issues, but PPP holds narrow edges in select swing districts due to local endorsements and voter turnout uncertainties. Key factors tipping the balance include ongoing impeachment proceedings against Yoon, candidate quality, and regional issues like economic pressures; the vote is scheduled soon, with any late scandals or mobilizations able to shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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