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Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Adriano Espaillat 65%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 28%

Oscar Romero 4.7%

James Felton Keith 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Adriano Espaillat 65%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 28%

Oscar Romero 4.7%

James Felton Keith 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Adriano Espaillat

$1,329 Vol.

65%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$0 Vol.

28%

Oscar Romero

$0 Vol.

5%

James Felton Keith

$608 Vol.

4%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$554 Vol.

1%

Jaleel Amador

$531 Vol.

1%

Megan Rodriguez

$733 Vol.

<1%

Matt Miller

$961 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus gives incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat a 65% implied probability of winning the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic district spanning Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, recent District Council 37 union delegate endorsement on March 5, Congressional Black Caucus backing in January, and cross-endorsement this week from New Jersey congressional candidate Analilia Raimo. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier trails at 28%, supported by Justice Democrats since November 2025 and NYC Democratic Socialists of America in January, appealing to progressive voters critical of Espaillat's record. Absent public polls, markets weigh these factional endorsements and organizational strengths ahead of the contest.

Trader consensus gives incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat a 65% implied probability of winning the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic district spanning Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, recent District Council 37 union delegate endorsement on March 5, Congressional Black Caucus backing in January, and cross-endorsement this week from New Jersey congressional candidate Analilia Raimo. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier trails at 28%, supported by Justice Democrats since November 2025 and NYC Democratic Socialists of America in January, appealing to progressive voters critical of Espaillat's record. Absent public polls, markets weigh these factional endorsements and organizational strengths ahead of the contest.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus gives incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat a 65% implied probability of winning the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic district spanning Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, recent District Council 37 union delegate endorsement on March 5, Congressional Black Caucus backing in January, and cross-endorsement this week from New Jersey congressional candidate Analilia Raimo. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier trails at 28%, supported by Justice Democrats since November 2025 and NYC Democratic Socialists of America in January, appealing to progressive voters critical of Espaillat's record. Absent public polls, markets weigh these factional endorsements and organizational strengths ahead of the contest.

Trader consensus gives incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat a 65% implied probability of winning the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic district spanning Upper Manhattan and the Bronx, recent District Council 37 union delegate endorsement on March 5, Congressional Black Caucus backing in January, and cross-endorsement this week from New Jersey congressional candidate Analilia Raimo. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier trails at 28%, supported by Justice Democrats since November 2025 and NYC Democratic Socialists of America in January, appealing to progressive voters critical of Espaillat's record. Absent public polls, markets weigh these factional endorsements and organizational strengths ahead of the contest.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 65%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 19, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.