Cait Conley's strong 62.5% implied probability in the NY-17 Democratic primary stems from her lead in recent polls, including a June Data for Progress survey showing her at 28% support amid a fragmented field, coupled with superior fundraising exceeding $1.2 million. Beth Davidson's 16% reflects grassroots organizing in the Hudson Valley, while Peter Chatzky's 11.2% draws from local attorney networks and progressive backing. Lower odds for Effie Phillips-Staley, Mike Sacks, and others highlight limited visibility despite niche appeals. Early voting underway ahead of the June 25 contest has traders pricing in Conley's momentum from EMILY's List endorsement and recent debates, though multicandidate dynamics leave room for turnout surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner
Cait Conley 63%
Beth Davidson 16%
Peter Chatzky 11.3%
Effie Phillips-Staley 5.2%
$20,787 Vol.
$20,787 Vol.
Cait Conley
63%
Beth Davidson
16%
Peter Chatzky
11%
Effie Phillips-Staley
5%
Mike Sacks
2%
Jessica Reinmann
2%
John Cappello
2%
John Sullivan
1%
Cait Conley 63%
Beth Davidson 16%
Peter Chatzky 11.3%
Effie Phillips-Staley 5.2%
$20,787 Vol.
$20,787 Vol.
Cait Conley
63%
Beth Davidson
16%
Peter Chatzky
11%
Effie Phillips-Staley
5%
Mike Sacks
2%
Jessica Reinmann
2%
John Cappello
2%
John Sullivan
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley's strong 62.5% implied probability in the NY-17 Democratic primary stems from her lead in recent polls, including a June Data for Progress survey showing her at 28% support amid a fragmented field, coupled with superior fundraising exceeding $1.2 million. Beth Davidson's 16% reflects grassroots organizing in the Hudson Valley, while Peter Chatzky's 11.2% draws from local attorney networks and progressive backing. Lower odds for Effie Phillips-Staley, Mike Sacks, and others highlight limited visibility despite niche appeals. Early voting underway ahead of the June 25 contest has traders pricing in Conley's momentum from EMILY's List endorsement and recent debates, though multicandidate dynamics leave room for turnout surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions