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Elections·Canada

Next Premier of Quebec

Market icon
Elections·Canada

Next Premier of Quebec

$53,035 Vol.

Polymarket

$53,035 Vol.

Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? icon

Bernard Drainville

$22,653 Vol.

No

Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? icon

Christine Fréchette

$30,382 Vol.

Yes

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Christine Fréchette's commanding 100% trader consensus as next Premier of Quebec stems from her victory in the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) leadership race on April 12, 2026, defeating rival Bernard Drainville to succeed outgoing Premier François Legault, leader of the governing party since 2018. As CAQ holds a majority in the National Assembly, Fréchette, a former economy minister and Sanguinet MNA, will be sworn in imminently, formalizing her role ahead of the October 2026 general election. This reflects the institutional certainty of party leadership transitions in Quebec's parliamentary system. Realistic challenges include an early no-confidence vote, snap election called by Fréchette herself, or internal party revolt, though historical precedents favor stability for new incumbents.

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$53,035
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Christine Fréchette's commanding 100% trader consensus as next Premier of Quebec stems from her victory in the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) leadership race on April 12, 2026, defeating rival Bernard Drainville to succeed outgoing Premier François Legault, leader of the governing party since 2018. As CAQ holds a majority in the National Assembly, Fréchette, a former economy minister and Sanguinet MNA, will be sworn in imminently, formalizing her role ahead of the October 2026 general election. This reflects the institutional certainty of party leadership transitions in Quebec's parliamentary system. Realistic challenges include an early no-confidence vote, snap election called by Fréchette herself, or internal party revolt, though historical precedents favor stability for new incumbents.

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$53,035
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Premier of Quebec" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christine Fréchette" at 100%, followed by "Bernard Drainville" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Premier of Quebec" has generated $53K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Premier of Quebec," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Premier of Quebec" is "Christine Fréchette" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bernard Drainville" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Premier of Quebec" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.