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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 23%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 6%

Polymarket

$44,871,012 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 23%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 6%

Polymarket

$44,871,012 Vol.

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Jordan Bardella

$761,515 Vol.

23%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Édouard Philippe

$533,886 Vol.

23%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$356,731 Vol.

9%

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Marine Le Pen

$400,339 Vol.

6%

Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Dominique de Villepin

$996,564 Vol.

5%

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

David Lisnard

$914,766 Vol.

3%

Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Bruno Retailleau

$1,134,569 Vol.

3%

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Gabriel Attal

$1,029,323 Vol.

3%

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

François Hollande

$755,679 Vol.

3%

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Raphaël Glucksmann

$617,343 Vol.

2%

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Sarah Knafo

$1,099,932 Vol.

2%

Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Jean Castex

$612,970 Vol.

2%

Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Sébastien Lecornu

$769,957 Vol.

1%

Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Bernard Cazeneuve

$1,073,999 Vol.

1%

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Gérald Darmanin

$531,929 Vol.

1%

Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Fabien Roussel

$1,716,314 Vol.

1%

Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Éric Zemmour

$544,584 Vol.

1%

Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

François Ruffin

$543,341 Vol.

1%

Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Valérie Pécresse

$1,903,643 Vol.

1%

Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Laurent Wauquiez

$1,002,320 Vol.

1%

Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

François Asselineau

$2,269,016 Vol.

1%

Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$2,100,491 Vol.

1%

Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Élisabeth Borne

$2,172,686 Vol.

1%

Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Carole Delga

$1,768,789 Vol.

1%

Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Manuel Bompard

$1,531,904 Vol.

1%

Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Juan Branco

$429,566 Vol.

1%

Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Xavier Bertrand

$1,323,080 Vol.

1%

Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Marine Tondelier

$925,993 Vol.

1%

Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Olivier Faure

$1,450,607 Vol.

1%

Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Ségolène Royal

$1,691,016 Vol.

1%

Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Clémentine Autain

$2,208,809 Vol.

1%

Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Michel Barnier

$1,744,866 Vol.

1%

Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

François Bayrou

$2,301,269 Vol.

1%

Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,693,180 Vol.

1%

Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Mathilde Panot

$1,943,979 Vol.

1%

Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? icon

Clémence Guetté

$2,017,547 Vol.

1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella of the National Rally and Édouard Philippe of Horizons as co-favorites at 22.5% each for France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting fragmented first-round polls where Bardella leads at 34-38% and Philippe trails closely at 18-26% in late March Odoxa, Elabe, and April Ipsos surveys. This tightness stems from RN's national strength tempered by underwhelming municipal election results in major cities like Marseille, contrasted with Philippe's momentum from reelection as Le Havre mayor and his edge in runoff matchups (e.g., 51-49% over Bardella per Elabe). Left-wing fragmentation keeps Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8.5%, while Marine Le Pen's ineligibility due to a 2025 conviction sidelines her at 5.5%. Party primaries, scheduled amid ongoing debates, and economic pressures could tip the balance ahead of the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$44,871,012
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella of the National Rally and Édouard Philippe of Horizons as co-favorites at 22.5% each for France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting fragmented first-round polls where Bardella leads at 34-38% and Philippe trails closely at 18-26% in late March Odoxa, Elabe, and April Ipsos surveys. This tightness stems from RN's national strength tempered by underwhelming municipal election results in major cities like Marseille, contrasted with Philippe's momentum from reelection as Le Havre mayor and his edge in runoff matchups (e.g., 51-49% over Bardella per Elabe). Left-wing fragmentation keeps Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8.5%, while Marine Le Pen's ineligibility due to a 2025 conviction sidelines her at 5.5%. Party primaries, scheduled amid ongoing debates, and economic pressures could tip the balance ahead of the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$44,871,012
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 23%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $44.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.