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Elections·Primaries

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

New York Governor Republican Primary Winner

Bruce Blakeman 93%

Pat Hahn 4.6%

David Tulley 1.0%

Elise Stefanik <1%

Polymarket

$89,187 Vol.

Bruce Blakeman 93%

Pat Hahn 4.6%

David Tulley 1.0%

Elise Stefanik <1%

Polymarket

$89,187 Vol.

Bruce Blakeman

$11,821 Vol.

93%

Pat Hahn

$2,780 Vol.

5%

David Tulley

$41,081 Vol.

1%

Elise Stefanik

$11,624 Vol.

1%

Betsy McCaughey

$21,881 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman commands 92.5% implied probability as the New York Republican gubernatorial primary winner on June 23, driven by his overwhelming designation as the party nominee at the state GOP convention in February, followed by the Conservative Party endorsement. President Trump's December endorsement and recent April praise highlighting Blakeman's landslide reelection in Democratic-leaning Nassau have solidified trader consensus, reflecting his strong incumbency record on public safety and taxes amid weak challengers. Minor candidates like Pat Hahn, Elise Stefanik—who declined a primary run—David Tulley, and Betsy McCaughey trail far behind, needing valid petition signatures to qualify. Upsets could arise from scandals, late high-profile entries, or signature failures rendering Blakeman unopposed, though barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$89,187
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman commands 92.5% implied probability as the New York Republican gubernatorial primary winner on June 23, driven by his overwhelming designation as the party nominee at the state GOP convention in February, followed by the Conservative Party endorsement. President Trump's December endorsement and recent April praise highlighting Blakeman's landslide reelection in Democratic-leaning Nassau have solidified trader consensus, reflecting his strong incumbency record on public safety and taxes amid weak challengers. Minor candidates like Pat Hahn, Elise Stefanik—who declined a primary run—David Tulley, and Betsy McCaughey trail far behind, needing valid petition signatures to qualify. Upsets could arise from scandals, late high-profile entries, or signature failures rendering Blakeman unopposed, though barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$89,187
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bruce Blakeman" at 93%, followed by "Pat Hahn" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $89.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Bruce Blakeman" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pat Hahn" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "New York Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.