Rep. Chris Pappas dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on September 8, driven by his incumbency advantage as the 1st Congressional District representative, massive fundraising edge, and favorable early polling trends. First-quarter filings released this week reveal Pappas raised nearly $1.9 million more than the entire Republican field combined, with 97% of donations $100 or less, signaling robust grassroots backing in the open-seat race to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Challenger Karishma Manzur, a medical scientist emphasizing progressive priorities like campaign finance reform, garners 4.8% amid prior UNH surveys showing Pappas leading 65% to her mid-teens, highlighting high barriers for outsiders in low-turnout primaries absent major shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,956 Vol.
$11,956 Vol.
Chris Pappas
89%
Karishma Manzur
5%
$11,956 Vol.
$11,956 Vol.
Chris Pappas
89%
Karishma Manzur
5%
If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rep. Chris Pappas dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on September 8, driven by his incumbency advantage as the 1st Congressional District representative, massive fundraising edge, and favorable early polling trends. First-quarter filings released this week reveal Pappas raised nearly $1.9 million more than the entire Republican field combined, with 97% of donations $100 or less, signaling robust grassroots backing in the open-seat race to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Challenger Karishma Manzur, a medical scientist emphasizing progressive priorities like campaign finance reform, garners 4.8% amid prior UNH surveys showing Pappas leading 65% to her mid-teens, highlighting high barriers for outsiders in low-turnout primaries absent major shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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