U.S. and Israeli forces continue a sweeping airstrike campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the most recent major action comprising combined strikes around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province on March 25–26 and U.S. Navy Tomahawk barrages targeting nuclear sites on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and allied infrastructure, while maintaining de facto control over Strait of Hormuz passage. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate negotiations, but Tehran dismissed the U.S. peace proposal as unreasonable amid ongoing proxy escalations in Lebanon and Yemen. Over 10,000 targets degraded, trader consensus reflects degraded Iranian capabilities yet persistent regime resilience, with April 6 as a key diplomatic inflection point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
8%
April 2
13%
April 3
35%
April 4
38%
April 5
41%
April 6
13%
April 7
31%
April 8
12%
April 9
14%
April 10
16%
April 11
14%
April 12
17%
April 13
17%
April 14
24%
April 15
40%
April 16
42%
April 17
42%
April 18
42%
April 19
42%
April 20
41%
April 21
41%
April 22
42%
April 23
42%
April 24
41%
April 25
41%
April 26
42%
April 27
42%
April 28
42%
April 29
39%
April 30
42%
$3,442 Vol.
April 1
$18 Vol.
8%
April 2
$165 Vol.
13%
April 3
$0 Vol.
35%
April 4
$0 Vol.
38%
April 5
$0 Vol.
41%
April 6
$6 Vol.
13%
April 7
$0 Vol.
31%
April 8
$1 Vol.
12%
April 9
$0 Vol.
14%
April 10
$0 Vol.
16%
April 11
$0 Vol.
14%
April 12
$0 Vol.
17%
April 13
$0 Vol.
17%
April 14
$3,251 Vol.
24%
April 15
$0 Vol.
40%
April 16
$0 Vol.
42%
April 17
$0 Vol.
42%
April 18
$0 Vol.
42%
April 19
$0 Vol.
42%
April 20
$0 Vol.
41%
April 21
$0 Vol.
41%
April 22
$0 Vol.
42%
April 23
$0 Vol.
42%
April 24
$0 Vol.
41%
April 25
$0 Vol.
41%
April 26
$0 Vol.
42%
April 27
$0 Vol.
42%
April 28
$0 Vol.
42%
April 29
$0 Vol.
39%
April 30
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli forces continue a sweeping airstrike campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the most recent major action comprising combined strikes around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province on March 25–26 and U.S. Navy Tomahawk barrages targeting nuclear sites on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and allied infrastructure, while maintaining de facto control over Strait of Hormuz passage. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate negotiations, but Tehran dismissed the U.S. peace proposal as unreasonable amid ongoing proxy escalations in Lebanon and Yemen. Over 10,000 targets degraded, trader consensus reflects degraded Iranian capabilities yet persistent regime resilience, with April 6 as a key diplomatic inflection point.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$3,442End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli forces continue a sweeping airstrike campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the most recent major action comprising combined strikes around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province on March 25–26 and U.S. Navy Tomahawk barrages targeting nuclear sites on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and allied infrastructure, while maintaining de facto control over Strait of Hormuz passage. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate negotiations, but Tehran dismissed the U.S. peace proposal as unreasonable amid ongoing proxy escalations in Lebanon and Yemen. Over 10,000 targets degraded, trader consensus reflects degraded Iranian capabilities yet persistent regime resilience, with April 6 as a key diplomatic inflection point.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,442End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. and Israeli forces continue a sweeping airstrike campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with the most recent major action comprising combined strikes around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province on March 25–26 and U.S. Navy Tomahawk barrages targeting nuclear sites on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and allied infrastructure, while maintaining de facto control over Strait of Hormuz passage. President Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate negotiations, but Tehran dismissed the U.S. peace proposal as unreasonable amid ongoing proxy escalations in Lebanon and Yemen. Over 10,000 targets degraded, trader consensus reflects degraded Iranian capabilities yet persistent regime resilience, with April 6 as a key diplomatic inflection point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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