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Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Mallory McMorrow 53%

Abdul El-Sayed 34%

Haley Stevens 14%

Rashida Tlaib <1%

Polymarket

$242,700 Vol.

Mallory McMorrow 53%

Abdul El-Sayed 34%

Haley Stevens 14%

Rashida Tlaib <1%

Polymarket

$242,700 Vol.

Mallory McMorrow

$24,744 Vol.

53%

Abdul El-Sayed

$79,290 Vol.

34%

Haley Stevens

$17,788 Vol.

14%

Rashida Tlaib

$21,562 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Anthony

$10,625 Vol.

<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet

$9,882 Vol.

<1%

Matt Sahr

$53,133 Vol.

<1%

Dana Nessel

$10,922 Vol.

<1%

Andy Levin

$14,753 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors Mallory McMorrow at 52.5% implied probability to win Michigan's open Democratic U.S. Senate primary following Sen. Gary Peters' 2025 retirement announcement, driven by her recent 30% lead in a Glengariff Group internal poll released March 25 showing gains among likely voters and Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 18 endorsement appealing to progressives. Abdul El-Sayed trails at 34% buoyed by high name recognition (52%) and populist backing akin to past Sanders-aligned bids, while Rep. Haley Stevens slips to 14% as recent surveys like Impact Research highlight undecideds at 20-25% amid intra-party debates on ideology. Polling averages remain tight (McMorrow 25%, Stevens 23%, El-Sayed 22%), with the August 4 primary vulnerable to late shifts from endorsements or turnout in battleground Detroit suburbs.

Trader consensus favors Mallory McMorrow at 52.5% implied probability to win Michigan's open Democratic U.S. Senate primary following Sen. Gary Peters' 2025 retirement announcement, driven by her recent 30% lead in a Glengariff Group internal poll released March 25 showing gains among likely voters and Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 18 endorsement appealing to progressives. Abdul El-Sayed trails at 34% buoyed by high name recognition (52%) and populist backing akin to past Sanders-aligned bids, while Rep. Haley Stevens slips to 14% as recent surveys like Impact Research highlight undecideds at 20-25% amid intra-party debates on ideology. Polling averages remain tight (McMorrow 25%, Stevens 23%, El-Sayed 22%), with the August 4 primary vulnerable to late shifts from endorsements or turnout in battleground Detroit suburbs.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors Mallory McMorrow at 52.5% implied probability to win Michigan's open Democratic U.S. Senate primary following Sen. Gary Peters' 2025 retirement announcement, driven by her recent 30% lead in a Glengariff Group internal poll released March 25 showing gains among likely voters and Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 18 endorsement appealing to progressives. Abdul El-Sayed trails at 34% buoyed by high name recognition (52%) and populist backing akin to past Sanders-aligned bids, while Rep. Haley Stevens slips to 14% as recent surveys like Impact Research highlight undecideds at 20-25% amid intra-party debates on ideology. Polling averages remain tight (McMorrow 25%, Stevens 23%, El-Sayed 22%), with the August 4 primary vulnerable to late shifts from endorsements or turnout in battleground Detroit suburbs.

Trader consensus favors Mallory McMorrow at 52.5% implied probability to win Michigan's open Democratic U.S. Senate primary following Sen. Gary Peters' 2025 retirement announcement, driven by her recent 30% lead in a Glengariff Group internal poll released March 25 showing gains among likely voters and Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 18 endorsement appealing to progressives. Abdul El-Sayed trails at 34% buoyed by high name recognition (52%) and populist backing akin to past Sanders-aligned bids, while Rep. Haley Stevens slips to 14% as recent surveys like Impact Research highlight undecideds at 20-25% amid intra-party debates on ideology. Polling averages remain tight (McMorrow 25%, Stevens 23%, El-Sayed 22%), with the August 4 primary vulnerable to late shifts from endorsements or turnout in battleground Detroit suburbs.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mallory McMorrow" at 53%, followed by "Abdul El-Sayed" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $242.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Mallory McMorrow" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abdul El-Sayed" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.