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World·Italy

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

Market icon
World·Italy

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

9% chance
Polymarket

$33,895 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$33,895 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's centre-right coalition government, led by her Brothers of Italy party, remains stable despite a significant setback in the March 22-23 judicial reform referendum, where voters rejected the changes by about 54%. Meloni conceded the loss but affirmed her commitment to continue governing, implementing minor cabinet adjustments including the resignation of the tourism minister over fraud charges and the justice undersecretary amid mafia links. With no no-confidence votes, snap election calls, or major coalition fractures emerging in the past week, trader consensus reflects low risk of her departure by June 30, bolstered by polls showing Brothers of Italy leading ahead of the 2027 general election. Potential shifts could arise from escalating scandals or economic pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$33,895
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's centre-right coalition government, led by her Brothers of Italy party, remains stable despite a significant setback in the March 22-23 judicial reform referendum, where voters rejected the changes by about 54%. Meloni conceded the loss but affirmed her commitment to continue governing, implementing minor cabinet adjustments including the resignation of the tourism minister over fraud charges and the justice undersecretary amid mafia links. With no no-confidence votes, snap election calls, or major coalition fractures emerging in the past week, trader consensus reflects low risk of her departure by June 30, bolstered by polls showing Brothers of Italy leading ahead of the 2027 general election. Potential shifts could arise from escalating scandals or economic pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$33,895
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?" has generated $33.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.