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Elections·Global Elections

Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner

INC 72%

CPI(M) 25%

BJP <1%

CPI <1%

Polymarket

$128,060 Vol.

INC 72%

CPI(M) 25%

BJP <1%

CPI <1%

Polymarket

$128,060 Vol.

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INC

$7,899 Vol.

72%

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CPI(M)

$8,362 Vol.

25%

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BJP

$36,912 Vol.

1%

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CPI

$17,276 Vol.

1%

Market icon

JD(S)

$7,654 Vol.

1%

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IUML

$6,462 Vol.

1%

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NCP

$31,684 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

BSP

$3,952 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

RSP

$3,902 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

KEC(M)

$3,956 Vol.

<1%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 71.5% implied probability to win the Kerala Legislative Assembly election on April 9, driven by anti-incumbency against the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after two terms since 2016. Late March opinion polls from Matrize-IANS and News18-Vote Vibe project a tight race, with LDF projected at 61-73 seats and UDF at 58-70 in the 140-member house, but traders bet on UDF momentum from intensified campaigns, Rahul Gandhi's rallies, and cross-accusations of LDF-BJP alliances amid rising identity politics. BJP-led NDA trails at 0.9%, hampered by historical sub-15% vote shares in minority-heavy constituencies, while smaller parties like CPI remain marginal. Results due May 4.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$128,060
End Date
Apr 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 71.5% implied probability to win the Kerala Legislative Assembly election on April 9, driven by anti-incumbency against the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after two terms since 2016. Late March opinion polls from Matrize-IANS and News18-Vote Vibe project a tight race, with LDF projected at 61-73 seats and UDF at 58-70 in the 140-member house, but traders bet on UDF momentum from intensified campaigns, Rahul Gandhi's rallies, and cross-accusations of LDF-BJP alliances amid rising identity politics. BJP-led NDA trails at 0.9%, hampered by historical sub-15% vote shares in minority-heavy constituencies, while smaller parties like CPI remain marginal. Results due May 4.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$128,060
End Date
Apr 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Related

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Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "INC" at 72%, followed by "CPI(M)" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner" has generated $128.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner" is "INC" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CPI(M)" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.