Trader consensus prices an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) victory at 68.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election on April 9, driven by anti-incumbency against the two-term CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government and a March 25 analysis of 2024 Lok Sabha polls showing UDF ahead in 111 of 140 assembly segments with 45% vote share to LDF's 33%. Recent VoteTracker opinion poll projects a cliffhanger (UDF 64-70 seats, LDF 68-73), yet UDF momentum persists amid minority vote contests—favoring IUML allies—and campaign accusations of LDF-BJP collusion eroding Left support. CPI(M) at 28% reflects LDF vulnerabilities, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at 0.2% despite poll gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
INC 69%
CPI(M) 28%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$46,684 Vol.
$46,684 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
INC
69%
CPI(M)
28%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
NCP
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
BJP
<1%
IUML
<1%
INC 69%
CPI(M) 28%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$46,684 Vol.
$46,684 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
INC
$5,710 Vol.
69%
CPI(M)
$5,167 Vol.
28%
BSP
$2,991 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$3,064 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$2,943 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$3,013 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$13,142 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$3,915 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$3,806 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$2,935 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus prices an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) victory at 68.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election on April 9, driven by anti-incumbency against the two-term CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government and a March 25 analysis of 2024 Lok Sabha polls showing UDF ahead in 111 of 140 assembly segments with 45% vote share to LDF's 33%. Recent VoteTracker opinion poll projects a cliffhanger (UDF 64-70 seats, LDF 68-73), yet UDF momentum persists amid minority vote contests—favoring IUML allies—and campaign accusations of LDF-BJP collusion eroding Left support. CPI(M) at 28% reflects LDF vulnerabilities, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at 0.2% despite poll gains.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$46,684End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus prices an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) victory at 68.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election on April 9, driven by anti-incumbency against the two-term CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government and a March 25 analysis of 2024 Lok Sabha polls showing UDF ahead in 111 of 140 assembly segments with 45% vote share to LDF's 33%. Recent VoteTracker opinion poll projects a cliffhanger (UDF 64-70 seats, LDF 68-73), yet UDF momentum persists amid minority vote contests—favoring IUML allies—and campaign accusations of LDF-BJP collusion eroding Left support. CPI(M) at 28% reflects LDF vulnerabilities, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at 0.2% despite poll gains.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$46,684End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) victory at 68.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election on April 9, driven by anti-incumbency against the two-term CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government and a March 25 analysis of 2024 Lok Sabha polls showing UDF ahead in 111 of 140 assembly segments with 45% vote share to LDF's 33%. Recent VoteTracker opinion poll projects a cliffhanger (UDF 64-70 seats, LDF 68-73), yet UDF momentum persists amid minority vote contests—favoring IUML allies—and campaign accusations of LDF-BJP collusion eroding Left support. CPI(M) at 28% reflects LDF vulnerabilities, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at 0.2% despite poll gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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