Israeli forces launched ground operations in southern Lebanon on March 16 following Hezbollah attacks starting March 2, escalating into a full-scale conflict with ongoing airstrikes, troop reinforcements, and territorial advances toward the Litani River. Prime Minister Netanyahu's March 29 order to expand the security buffer zone aims to neutralize Hezbollah rocket threats, amid reports of four IDF soldiers killed in recent combat and an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs today. Diplomatic tensions rose at a UN Security Council session hours ago over peacekeeper casualties and escalation risks, with no ceasefire in sight as both sides report heavy military engagements. Traders weigh potential for further de-escalation via international pressure against continued cross-border barrages and infrastructure targeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$3,636,796 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 18
Yes
March 19
Yes
March 20
Yes
March 21
Yes
March 22
Yes
March 23
Yes
March 24
Yes
March 25
Yes
March 26
Yes
March 27
Yes
March 28
Yes
March 29
Yes
March 30
Yes
March 31
Yes
$3,636,796 Vol.
March 18
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 19
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 20
$3,395,914 Vol.
Yes
March 21
$45,276 Vol.
Yes
March 22
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 23
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 24
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 25
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 26
$0 Vol.
Yes
March 27
$47,143 Vol.
Yes
March 28
$50,381 Vol.
Yes
March 29
$42,406 Vol.
Yes
March 30
$17,358 Vol.
Yes
March 31
$38,319 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli forces launched ground operations in southern Lebanon on March 16 following Hezbollah attacks starting March 2, escalating into a full-scale conflict with ongoing airstrikes, troop reinforcements, and territorial advances toward the Litani River. Prime Minister Netanyahu's March 29 order to expand the security buffer zone aims to neutralize Hezbollah rocket threats, amid reports of four IDF soldiers killed in recent combat and an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs today. Diplomatic tensions rose at a UN Security Council session hours ago over peacekeeper casualties and escalation risks, with no ceasefire in sight as both sides report heavy military engagements. Traders weigh potential for further de-escalation via international pressure against continued cross-border barrages and infrastructure targeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Volume
$3,636,796End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli forces launched ground operations in southern Lebanon on March 16 following Hezbollah attacks starting March 2, escalating into a full-scale conflict with ongoing airstrikes, troop reinforcements, and territorial advances toward the Litani River. Prime Minister Netanyahu's March 29 order to expand the security buffer zone aims to neutralize Hezbollah rocket threats, amid reports of four IDF soldiers killed in recent combat and an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs today. Diplomatic tensions rose at a UN Security Council session hours ago over peacekeeper casualties and escalation risks, with no ceasefire in sight as both sides report heavy military engagements. Traders weigh potential for further de-escalation via international pressure against continued cross-border barrages and infrastructure targeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,636,796End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Israeli forces launched ground operations in southern Lebanon on March 16 following Hezbollah attacks starting March 2, escalating into a full-scale conflict with ongoing airstrikes, troop reinforcements, and territorial advances toward the Litani River. Prime Minister Netanyahu's March 29 order to expand the security buffer zone aims to neutralize Hezbollah rocket threats, amid reports of four IDF soldiers killed in recent combat and an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs today. Diplomatic tensions rose at a UN Security Council session hours ago over peacekeeper casualties and escalation risks, with no ceasefire in sight as both sides report heavy military engagements. Traders weigh potential for further de-escalation via international pressure against continued cross-border barrages and infrastructure targeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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