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Geopolitics·Strikes

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Strikes

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?

$49,832 Vol.

Apr 15, 2026
Polymarket

$49,832 Vol.

Polymarket

April 15

$27,804 Vol.

8%

April 30

$22,028 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating Israel-Iran airstrikes entering their fifth week, Israeli forces confirmed attacks on Arak's Khondab heavy-water reactor and Yazd's Ardakan yellowcake facility on March 27-28, with IAEA verifying damage but no radiation leaks, driving trader consensus to low odds of 8% for a kinetic strike on Fordow by April 15 and 24% by April 30. Fordow's deep underground fortification under granite poses significant barriers to Israeli munitions without U.S. bunker-busters, explaining the pricing despite early March civilian evacuation warnings near the site and unconfirmed Iranian reports of nuclear hits. Recent Iranian hypersonic missile launches and Trump's reported deliberations on uranium extraction ops heighten uncertainty, while ceasefire talks offer potential de-escalation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$49,832
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating Israel-Iran airstrikes entering their fifth week, Israeli forces confirmed attacks on Arak's Khondab heavy-water reactor and Yazd's Ardakan yellowcake facility on March 27-28, with IAEA verifying damage but no radiation leaks, driving trader consensus to low odds of 8% for a kinetic strike on Fordow by April 15 and 24% by April 30. Fordow's deep underground fortification under granite poses significant barriers to Israeli munitions without U.S. bunker-busters, explaining the pricing despite early March civilian evacuation warnings near the site and unconfirmed Iranian reports of nuclear hits. Recent Iranian hypersonic missile launches and Trump's reported deliberations on uranium extraction ops heighten uncertainty, while ceasefire talks offer potential de-escalation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$49,832
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?

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Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

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Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

28%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 23%, followed by "April 15" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" has generated $49.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is "April 30" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 15" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.