Following Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—sparing nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—both Tehran and Jerusalem have signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and vowing only a "precise" response if provoked further. This followed Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh. Proxy tensions persist along the Israel-Lebanon border and in Red Sea shipping lanes via Houthis, while US diplomacy through Oman and Qatar pushes restraint. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot, with a Trump win possibly hardening sanctions or a Harris administration emphasizing multilateral talks. Traders weigh structural barriers to full war—economic strains on Iran, Israel's focus on Gaza/Hezbollah—against escalation risks from miscalculations or proxy flare-ups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$7,824,509 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
3%
April 15
22%
April 7
10%
April 30
35%
May 15
42%
June 30
63%
December 31
82%
$7,824,509 Vol.
March 31
$4,115,502 Vol.
3%
April 15
$872,317 Vol.
22%
April 7
$66,536 Vol.
10%
April 30
$644,532 Vol.
35%
May 15
$1,143,997 Vol.
42%
June 30
$785,576 Vol.
63%
December 31
$196,057 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Following Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—sparing nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—both Tehran and Jerusalem have signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and vowing only a "precise" response if provoked further. This followed Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh. Proxy tensions persist along the Israel-Lebanon border and in Red Sea shipping lanes via Houthis, while US diplomacy through Oman and Qatar pushes restraint. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot, with a Trump win possibly hardening sanctions or a Harris administration emphasizing multilateral talks. Traders weigh structural barriers to full war—economic strains on Iran, Israel's focus on Gaza/Hezbollah—against escalation risks from miscalculations or proxy flare-ups.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$7,824,509End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Following Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—sparing nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—both Tehran and Jerusalem have signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and vowing only a "precise" response if provoked further. This followed Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh. Proxy tensions persist along the Israel-Lebanon border and in Red Sea shipping lanes via Houthis, while US diplomacy through Oman and Qatar pushes restraint. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot, with a Trump win possibly hardening sanctions or a Harris administration emphasizing multilateral talks. Traders weigh structural barriers to full war—economic strains on Iran, Israel's focus on Gaza/Hezbollah—against escalation risks from miscalculations or proxy flare-ups.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$7,824,509End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—sparing nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—both Tehran and Jerusalem have signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and vowing only a "precise" response if provoked further. This followed Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh. Proxy tensions persist along the Israel-Lebanon border and in Red Sea shipping lanes via Houthis, while US diplomacy through Oman and Qatar pushes restraint. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot, with a Trump win possibly hardening sanctions or a Harris administration emphasizing multilateral talks. Traders weigh structural barriers to full war—economic strains on Iran, Israel's focus on Gaza/Hezbollah—against escalation risks from miscalculations or proxy flare-ups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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