Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC bases—initiated February 28—have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa reported within the last day, marking one of the largest waves in weeks. President Trump's April 2 address pledged intensified US action to neutralize threats, while Israeli officials push for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to accelerate regime instability. Tehran vows "zero restraint" retaliation against further infrastructure hits, as proxies like Houthis launch supporting assaults. No ceasefire talks are underway, with Iran's missile stockpiles reportedly diminishing amid high intercept rates, shaping trader assessments of sustained direct action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$71,132 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 2
94%
April 3
89%
April 4
88%
April 5
87%
April 6
87%
April 7
86%
April 8
80%
April 9
82%
April 10
74%
$71,132 Vol.
April 2
$26,618 Vol.
94%
April 3
$10,191 Vol.
89%
April 4
$2,329 Vol.
88%
April 5
$1,414 Vol.
87%
April 6
$221 Vol.
87%
April 7
$644 Vol.
86%
April 8
$1,136 Vol.
80%
April 9
$830 Vol.
82%
April 10
$578 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC bases—initiated February 28—have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa reported within the last day, marking one of the largest waves in weeks. President Trump's April 2 address pledged intensified US action to neutralize threats, while Israeli officials push for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to accelerate regime instability. Tehran vows "zero restraint" retaliation against further infrastructure hits, as proxies like Houthis launch supporting assaults. No ceasefire talks are underway, with Iran's missile stockpiles reportedly diminishing amid high intercept rates, shaping trader assessments of sustained direct action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$71,132End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC bases—initiated February 28—have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa reported within the last day, marking one of the largest waves in weeks. President Trump's April 2 address pledged intensified US action to neutralize threats, while Israeli officials push for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to accelerate regime instability. Tehran vows "zero restraint" retaliation against further infrastructure hits, as proxies like Houthis launch supporting assaults. No ceasefire talks are underway, with Iran's missile stockpiles reportedly diminishing amid high intercept rates, shaping trader assessments of sustained direct action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$71,132End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and IRGC bases—initiated February 28—have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including fresh attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa reported within the last day, marking one of the largest waves in weeks. President Trump's April 2 address pledged intensified US action to neutralize threats, while Israeli officials push for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to accelerate regime instability. Tehran vows "zero restraint" retaliation against further infrastructure hits, as proxies like Houthis launch supporting assaults. No ceasefire talks are underway, with Iran's missile stockpiles reportedly diminishing amid high intercept rates, shaping trader assessments of sustained direct action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions