Amid the 2026 Iran War, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 27 that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has conducted repeated missile and drone barrages against Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. The most recent major attack on March 27 targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 10-12 U.S. troops and damaging refueling aircraft, with Saudi forces intercepting most projectiles. Gulf states have signaled military readiness for self-defense while urging de-escalation, as UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemned Iran's actions. Traders monitor potential Gulf retaliation, U.S. escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
53%
April 2
50%
April 3
66%
April 4
58%
April 5
47%
April 6
41%
April 7
47%
April 8
64%
April 9
59%
April 10
44%
$5,958 Vol.
April 1
$63 Vol.
53%
April 2
$0 Vol.
50%
April 3
$0 Vol.
66%
April 4
$5,723 Vol.
58%
April 5
$0 Vol.
47%
April 6
$0 Vol.
41%
April 7
$0 Vol.
47%
April 8
$172 Vol.
64%
April 9
$0 Vol.
59%
April 10
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran War, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 27 that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has conducted repeated missile and drone barrages against Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. The most recent major attack on March 27 targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 10-12 U.S. troops and damaging refueling aircraft, with Saudi forces intercepting most projectiles. Gulf states have signaled military readiness for self-defense while urging de-escalation, as UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemned Iran's actions. Traders monitor potential Gulf retaliation, U.S. escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$5,958End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran War, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 27 that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has conducted repeated missile and drone barrages against Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. The most recent major attack on March 27 targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 10-12 U.S. troops and damaging refueling aircraft, with Saudi forces intercepting most projectiles. Gulf states have signaled military readiness for self-defense while urging de-escalation, as UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemned Iran's actions. Traders monitor potential Gulf retaliation, U.S. escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$5,958End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Iran War, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 27 that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has conducted repeated missile and drone barrages against Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. The most recent major attack on March 27 targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, wounding 10-12 U.S. troops and damaging refueling aircraft, with Saudi forces intercepting most projectiles. Gulf states have signaled military readiness for self-defense while urging de-escalation, as UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemned Iran's actions. Traders monitor potential Gulf retaliation, U.S. escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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