Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by the March 31 deadline, driven by the collapse of 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in February and March. IAEA reports from late February confirm Iran denied inspectors access to enrichment sites, unable to verify any suspension of activities amid a stockpile of highly enriched uranium nearing weapons-grade levels. A U.S. 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding dismantlement of the nuclear program has received no acceptance from Tehran, with hostilities persisting despite earlier Oman-mediated claims of progress. Only an unforeseen last-minute diplomatic announcement could shift this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2,211,612 Vol.
$2,211,612 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$2,211,612 Vol.
$2,211,612 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by the March 31 deadline, driven by the collapse of 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in February and March. IAEA reports from late February confirm Iran denied inspectors access to enrichment sites, unable to verify any suspension of activities amid a stockpile of highly enriched uranium nearing weapons-grade levels. A U.S. 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding dismantlement of the nuclear program has received no acceptance from Tehran, with hostilities persisting despite earlier Oman-mediated claims of progress. Only an unforeseen last-minute diplomatic announcement could shift this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volume
$2,211,612End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by the March 31 deadline, driven by the collapse of 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in February and March. IAEA reports from late February confirm Iran denied inspectors access to enrichment sites, unable to verify any suspension of activities amid a stockpile of highly enriched uranium nearing weapons-grade levels. A U.S. 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding dismantlement of the nuclear program has received no acceptance from Tehran, with hostilities persisting despite earlier Oman-mediated claims of progress. Only an unforeseen last-minute diplomatic announcement could shift this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,211,772End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by the March 31 deadline, driven by the collapse of 2025–2026 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in February and March. IAEA reports from late February confirm Iran denied inspectors access to enrichment sites, unable to verify any suspension of activities amid a stockpile of highly enriched uranium nearing weapons-grade levels. A U.S. 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding dismantlement of the nuclear program has received no acceptance from Tehran, with hostilities persisting despite earlier Oman-mediated claims of progress. Only an unforeseen last-minute diplomatic announcement could shift this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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