Trader consensus prices an 84% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Oman in February-March 2026, which ended without a verifiable deal despite reported Iranian offers to limit stockpiles. IAEA reports from late February highlight ongoing verification failures at sites damaged by US-Israeli strikes in June 2025, with inspectors unable to account for nearly 440kg of 60% enriched uranium since then. Recent US statements emphasize military options to secure stockpiles rather than diplomacy, amid Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment rights under IAEA oversight, underscoring deep distrust and no imminent path to formal agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$163,753 Vol.
$163,753 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$163,753 Vol.
$163,753 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 84% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Oman in February-March 2026, which ended without a verifiable deal despite reported Iranian offers to limit stockpiles. IAEA reports from late February highlight ongoing verification failures at sites damaged by US-Israeli strikes in June 2025, with inspectors unable to account for nearly 440kg of 60% enriched uranium since then. Recent US statements emphasize military options to secure stockpiles rather than diplomacy, amid Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment rights under IAEA oversight, underscoring deep distrust and no imminent path to formal agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$163,753End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 84% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Oman in February-March 2026, which ended without a verifiable deal despite reported Iranian offers to limit stockpiles. IAEA reports from late February highlight ongoing verification failures at sites damaged by US-Israeli strikes in June 2025, with inspectors unable to account for nearly 440kg of 60% enriched uranium since then. Recent US statements emphasize military options to secure stockpiles rather than diplomacy, amid Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment rights under IAEA oversight, underscoring deep distrust and no imminent path to formal agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$163,753End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 84% chance against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled indirect US-Iran negotiations mediated by Oman in February-March 2026, which ended without a verifiable deal despite reported Iranian offers to limit stockpiles. IAEA reports from late February highlight ongoing verification failures at sites damaged by US-Israeli strikes in June 2025, with inspectors unable to account for nearly 440kg of 60% enriched uranium since then. Recent US statements emphasize military options to secure stockpiles rather than diplomacy, amid Iran's insistence on retaining enrichment rights under IAEA oversight, underscoring deep distrust and no imminent path to formal agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions