Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 49.5%, reflecting confirmed recent anti-ship strikes—including a missile hit on a tanker north of Qatar on April 1 and a second tanker attack the same day—amid broader U.S. and Israeli degradation of Iran's navy, with nine vessels sunk and anti-ship missile sites targeted. The 34.1% on 10+ captures escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran demands transit fees from queued cargo ships and deploys asymmetric tools like drones, suicide boats, and cruise missiles despite U.S. warnings and ongoing airstrikes. Lower odds on 4–9 outcomes highlight uncertainty over Iran's sustained capacity versus coalition interdiction efforts before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 51%
10+ 33.6%
4–5 18%
6–7 14%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
50%
4–5
16%
6–7
14%
8–9
9%
10+
34%
2–3 51%
10+ 33.6%
4–5 18%
6–7 14%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2–3
$3,646 Vol.
50%
4–5
$169 Vol.
16%
6–7
$2,163 Vol.
14%
8–9
$4,889 Vol.
9%
10+
$166 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 49.5%, reflecting confirmed recent anti-ship strikes—including a missile hit on a tanker north of Qatar on April 1 and a second tanker attack the same day—amid broader U.S. and Israeli degradation of Iran's navy, with nine vessels sunk and anti-ship missile sites targeted. The 34.1% on 10+ captures escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran demands transit fees from queued cargo ships and deploys asymmetric tools like drones, suicide boats, and cruise missiles despite U.S. warnings and ongoing airstrikes. Lower odds on 4–9 outcomes highlight uncertainty over Iran's sustained capacity versus coalition interdiction efforts before April 30.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$35,762End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 49.5%, reflecting confirmed recent anti-ship strikes—including a missile hit on a tanker north of Qatar on April 1 and a second tanker attack the same day—amid broader U.S. and Israeli degradation of Iran's navy, with nine vessels sunk and anti-ship missile sites targeted. The 34.1% on 10+ captures escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran demands transit fees from queued cargo ships and deploys asymmetric tools like drones, suicide boats, and cruise missiles despite U.S. warnings and ongoing airstrikes. Lower odds on 4–9 outcomes highlight uncertainty over Iran's sustained capacity versus coalition interdiction efforts before April 30.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$35,762End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 49.5%, reflecting confirmed recent anti-ship strikes—including a missile hit on a tanker north of Qatar on April 1 and a second tanker attack the same day—amid broader U.S. and Israeli degradation of Iran's navy, with nine vessels sunk and anti-ship missile sites targeted. The 34.1% on 10+ captures escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran demands transit fees from queued cargo ships and deploys asymmetric tools like drones, suicide boats, and cruise missiles despite U.S. warnings and ongoing airstrikes. Lower odds on 4–9 outcomes highlight uncertainty over Iran's sustained capacity versus coalition interdiction efforts before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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