Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

How many different countries will Israel strike in January?

Name: How many different countries will Israel strike in January?
Start: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Jan 31

Feb 28

Dec 31

≤1 100.0%

2 <1%

3 <1%

≥4 <1%

$244,700 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026

≤1
$65,821 Vol.
100%

2
$82,605 Vol.
<1%

3
$76,543 Vol.
<1%

≥4
$19,731 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

How many different countries will Israel strike in January?

Jan 31

Feb 28

Dec 31

≤1 100.0%

2 <1%

3 <1%

≥4 <1%

$244,700 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026

≤1

$65,821 Vol.

100%

$82,605 Vol.

<1%

$76,543 Vol.

<1%

≥4

$19,731 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$244,700

End Date

Jan 31, 2026

Created At

Jan 5, 2026, 4:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

How many different countries will Israel strike in January?

≤1
$65,821 Vol.
100%

2
$82,605 Vol.
<1%

3
$76,543 Vol.
<1%

≥4
$19,731 Vol.
<1%

Market Context