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Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?

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Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?

$62,841 Vol.

Feb 8, 2026
Polymarket

$62,841 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

LDP

$5,145 Vol.

Yes

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CRA

$6,849 Vol.

No

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JIP

$10,784 Vol.

No

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DPFP

$3,537 Vol.

No

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Sanseitō

$6,245 Vol.

No

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Reiwa

$6,195 Vol.

No

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JCP

$5,752 Vol.

No

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CPJ

$6,561 Vol.

No

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SDP

$6,175 Vol.

No

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Mirai

$5,597 Vol.

No

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is part of the first governing, non-caretaker coalition formed as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will be considered part of the governing coalition only if, following the election, at least one member of that party is formally appointed as a Cabinet minister by the Prime Minister. The existence or non-existence of a written coalition agreement will not be determinative for purposes of this market.

A party that supports the government through a confidence-and-supply arrangement, legislative cooperation, or voting support, but does not hold any Cabinet minister positions, will not be considered part of the governing coalition for purposes of this market.

If one party holds a majority and provides all Cabinet ministers, that party is the sole governing party, and all other parties are considered not part of the governing coalition.

This market may resolve once the Prime Minister is elected by the National Diet and the Cabinet is formally appointed and announced under non-caretaker circumstances.

If the composition of the governing coalition is not known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting regarding the formation of the governing coalition. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official statements or documentation from the Japanese government, including the Prime Minister’s Office or the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/).
Volume
$62,841
End Date
Feb 8, 2026
Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is part of the first governing, non-caretaker coalition formed as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A party will be considered part of the governing coalition only if, following the election, at least one member of that party is formally appointed as a Cabinet minister by the Prime Minister. The existence or non-existence of a written coalition agreement will not be determinative for purposes of this market. A party that supports the government through a confidence-and-supply arrangement, legislative cooperation, or voting support, but does not hold any Cabinet minister positions, will not be considered part of the governing coalition for purposes of this market. If one party holds a majority and provides all Cabinet ministers, that party is the sole governing party, and all other parties are considered not part of the governing coalition. This market may resolve once the Prime Minister is elected by the National Diet and the Cabinet is formally appointed and announced under non-caretaker circumstances. If the composition of the governing coalition is not known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting regarding the formation of the governing coalition. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official statements or documentation from the Japanese government, including the Prime Minister’s Office or the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "LDP" at 100%, followed by "CRA" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?" has generated $62.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?" is "LDP" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CRA" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Governing Parties after Japanese snap election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.