The Liberal majority secured by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government through 2026 by-election gains and floor crossings has removed near-term risks of defeat on confidence matters, anchoring trader expectations against an early federal dissolution. Parliament resumed in September with no scheduled no-confidence motions or supply crises, while polling shows the Conservatives trailing amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions that favor continuity. The fixed-date election remains October 15, 2029, and recent provincial activity—including British Columbia’s snap call for October 24 and Quebec’s October 5 vote—has not shifted federal dynamics. Pending by-elections and any late-session legislative friction represent the main variables that could alter the low implied probability of a writ drop before mid-2027.