Recent by-elections on April 13, 2026, delivered Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals a working majority in the House of Commons, removing any immediate risk of defeat on confidence motions or supply bills. With Parliament stabilized, the government faces no procedural pressure to request dissolution before the fixed-date election scheduled for October 2029. Historical patterns show majority administrations rarely call early votes when legislative calendars remain open and economic conditions permit governing until the end of the mandate. Traders therefore assign only a 1.2 percent implied probability that writs will be issued by the June 30, 2026, cutoff. The only realistic paths to an earlier contest would require an abrupt leadership transition, a sharp reversal in public support, or an unforeseen national crisis capable of prompting voluntary dissolution.