**Mark Carney’s Liberal majority government, secured through April 2026 by-elections and subsequent floor crossings, has removed near-term confidence risks and eliminated pressure for an early federal election.** The 2025 contest produced a minority that Carney converted into a working majority, allowing the government to pass supply and avoid no-confidence threats from Conservatives or the Bloc. Recent September 2026 by-elections further reinforced the Liberals’ position without altering the parliamentary math. With the fixed-date election set for October 15, 2029, and no scheduled confidence votes or public signals of dissolution, traders see little incentive for a snap call before mid-2026 deadlines. External factors such as ongoing U.S. trade tensions have instead prompted emphasis on stability rather than electoral disruption.