**Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government holds a slim majority in the House of Commons following 2025 election results and subsequent by-election gains plus floor crossings that solidified its position by mid-2026.** With no immediate threats of confidence defeats or supply bill losses, and polling showing the Liberals leading the Conservatives by double digits amid strong approval ratings tied to management of U.S. trade tensions, the party has little incentive to seek an early dissolution. The fixed-date election under the Canada Elections Act remains October 15, 2029, and opposition parties currently lack leverage to force a vote. Recent parliamentary returns have focused on legislative priorities such as project approvals and labor rules rather than brinkmanship, while vacancies and by-elections ahead do not alter the government’s stability. Traders therefore assign low probability to a snap election call before the fixed date absent major unforeseen developments.