The Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a majority in the House of Commons following the April 2025 federal election and subsequent by-election gains plus floor crossings that solidified its position by spring 2026. Recent polling aggregates show the Liberals maintaining a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, reducing immediate incentives for an early dissolution despite ongoing U.S. trade tensions and domestic policy debates. The next fixed-date election falls on or before October 15, 2029, though the prime minister retains discretion to advise the governor general to drop the writ earlier. Provincial developments, including British Columbia’s snap vote and Quebec’s recent Parti Québécois minority win, have not altered federal dynamics. Trader consensus on timing incorporates these factors alongside historical patterns of majority governments completing full terms absent major scandals or confidence losses.