Canada’s 46th Parliament operates under a Liberal majority government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney following 2025 results and subsequent by-election gains plus floor crossings that secured a working majority by spring 2026. The Canada Elections Act sets the next fixed polling date for October 15, 2029, though the prime minister may advise dissolution earlier. With the government holding a comfortable seat cushion and no recent non-confidence motions or supply defeats, trader-implied probabilities for a snap federal election remain low. Provincial contests in Quebec and British Columbia this month, along with ongoing by-elections, occupy immediate political attention without altering federal stability. Historical precedent shows majority governments rarely dissolve early absent major scandals or economic shocks, keeping resolution windows for early-call markets distant.