The Liberal majority secured in April 2026 through by-election gains and floor crossings has removed immediate parliamentary pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, with recent August 31 by-elections further reinforcing the party’s position above the 172-seat threshold. Fixed-date provisions set the next election for October 15, 2029, and no supply or confidence votes loom in the current session. Opposition parties, including the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre, lack the seats or procedural leverage to force dissolution, while polling shows stable support for the governing party. Traders price a low probability of an early call absent a sudden loss of majority or major policy reversal, consistent with historical patterns where majority governments typically serve full terms.