Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government holds a stable House majority following 2025 election results and subsequent by-elections, removing immediate risks of defeat on confidence matters. With no scheduled opposition no-confidence motions or supply crises, attention has shifted to legislative priorities such as the Building Canada Strong Act and responses to U.S. trade pressures. The fixed-date election remains October 15, 2029, and traders see little incentive for an early dissolution given current polling stability and the absence of triggering events. Upcoming provincial votes in Quebec and British Columbia plus ongoing parliamentary business further reduce near-term federal election signals, keeping implied probabilities for a call before late 2026 or 2027 very low.