The Liberal majority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney, secured through 2026 by-elections and floor-crossings, has removed near-term risks of defeat on confidence votes or supply bills. With the fixed-date election set for October 15, 2029, and no scheduled parliamentary challenges or public signals of a snap dissolution, traders assign low probability to an earlier writ. Recent provincial snap calls in British Columbia and activity in Quebec reflect separate dynamics and do not alter federal stability. Upcoming fall sittings and by-elections could test opposition cohesion, but current polling leads and legislative control make an early federal election call unlikely before mid-2026.