The recent securing of a Liberal majority through April 2026 by-elections and floor crossings has removed immediate pressure for an early contest, anchoring trader consensus against a snap election call by June 30. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government now holds a working majority in the House of Commons, enabling it to pass legislation without relying on opposition support until the fixed-date election due no later than October 2029. Historical precedent shows majority governments rarely seek dissolution when the legislative calendar and economic conditions permit waiting. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 resolution window closes, the procedural requirements for issuing writs further limit any sudden shift absent a major crisis or unexpected loss of confidence.