Canada’s federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident inflows through the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new international student arrivals by 49 percent and temporary worker targets by 37 percent while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. These reductions aim to bring the temporary resident share below 5 percent of the total population by year-end. Official data already recorded a 0.2 percent national decline of roughly 102,000 people from January 2025 to January 2026, driven by net outflows of non-permanent residents. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or marginally negative growth for 2026 overall, as lower inflows offset natural increase and permanent admissions. Traders have priced these policy measures and early-year trends as the dominant factors tilting the balance toward a year-over-year drop.