Keisha Lance Bottoms leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability for the Georgia Democratic gubernatorial primary on May 19, bolstered by her commanding position in recent Emerson College polling, high name recognition as former Atlanta mayor, and strong showings in April 16 debates hosted by GPB and 11Alive emphasizing statewide issues like education funding via casino revenue. State Sen. Jason Esteves has surged to 23% on early aggressive ad buys—the first major Democratic primary TV campaign—and reported polling gains amid personal story resonance following his mother's recent passing, positioning him as a potential runoff contender under Georgia's majority-vote rules. Former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan's 10.7% reflects anti-Trump crossover appeal to moderates despite party-switch skepticism, while others trail amid fragmented field and approaching early voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKeisha Lance Bottoms 65%
Jason Esteves 23%
Geoff Duncan 10.7%
Mike Thurmond <1%
$161,395 Vol.
$161,395 Vol.
Keisha Lance Bottoms
65%
Jason Esteves
23%
Geoff Duncan
11%
Mike Thurmond
1%
Derrick Jackson
<1%
Ruwa Romman
<1%
Olujimi Brown
<1%
Keisha Lance Bottoms 65%
Jason Esteves 23%
Geoff Duncan 10.7%
Mike Thurmond <1%
$161,395 Vol.
$161,395 Vol.
Keisha Lance Bottoms
65%
Jason Esteves
23%
Geoff Duncan
11%
Mike Thurmond
1%
Derrick Jackson
<1%
Ruwa Romman
<1%
Olujimi Brown
<1%
If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Keisha Lance Bottoms leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability for the Georgia Democratic gubernatorial primary on May 19, bolstered by her commanding position in recent Emerson College polling, high name recognition as former Atlanta mayor, and strong showings in April 16 debates hosted by GPB and 11Alive emphasizing statewide issues like education funding via casino revenue. State Sen. Jason Esteves has surged to 23% on early aggressive ad buys—the first major Democratic primary TV campaign—and reported polling gains amid personal story resonance following his mother's recent passing, positioning him as a potential runoff contender under Georgia's majority-vote rules. Former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan's 10.7% reflects anti-Trump crossover appeal to moderates despite party-switch skepticism, while others trail amid fragmented field and approaching early voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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