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Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Catalina Lauf 40%

Madison Cawthorn 16.2%

Jim Oberweis 9.5%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 40%

Madison Cawthorn 16.2%

Jim Oberweis 9.5%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,461 Vol.

55%

Madison Cawthorn

$721 Vol.

16%

Jim Oberweis

$2,057 Vol.

10%

Jim Schwartzel

$0 Vol.

19%

Spencer Roach

$0 Vol.

5%

Bob Rommel

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 55%, followed by "Jim Schwartzel" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $18.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Catalina Lauf" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.