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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.8%

Jon Ossoff 5.2%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$971,652,299 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.8%

Jon Ossoff 5.2%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$971,652,299 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,163,144 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$7,259,277 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,247,258 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$9,049,286 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,691,498 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,124,565 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$7,369,726 Vol.

3%

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James Talarico

$5,597,081 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$11,757,616 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,912,910 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,931,897 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,415,105 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,746,282 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,422,363 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,089,064 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,841,696 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,532,235 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,934,351 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,600,207 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,059,875 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,186,464 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,196,129 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,268,268 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,678,619 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,839,524 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,516,478 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,430,092 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,615,892 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,259,695 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,284,177 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,957,568 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,882,220 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,016,130 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,700,576 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,447,424 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,139,055 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,374,394 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,066,169 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,637,613 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,018,177 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,558,768 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,063,551 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,126,209 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,652,305 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 25% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by recent polls showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in a California primary matchup and topping insider surveys as the party’s best-positioned leader amid Donald Trump’s second term. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% following her pledge this week to oppose all U.S. military aid to Israel, energizing progressives but highlighting intraparty tensions as centrists mobilize in South Carolina to block left-wing firebrands from the nomination. Sen. Jon Ossoff rounds out the top three at 5%, buoyed by his battleground appeal. With national polls varying—some favoring Harris at 31%—2026 midterms, fundraising, and early primary state performances will likely consolidate support in this wide-open field lacking a dominant incumbent or clear heir apparent.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$971,652,299
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Gov. Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 25% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by recent polls showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in a California primary matchup and topping insider surveys as the party’s best-positioned leader amid Donald Trump’s second term. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% following her pledge this week to oppose all U.S. military aid to Israel, energizing progressives but highlighting intraparty tensions as centrists mobilize in South Carolina to block left-wing firebrands from the nomination. Sen. Jon Ossoff rounds out the top three at 5%, buoyed by his battleground appeal. With national polls varying—some favoring Harris at 31%—2026 midterms, fundraising, and early primary state performances will likely consolidate support in this wide-open field lacking a dominant incumbent or clear heir apparent.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$971,652,299
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $971.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.