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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$941,627,811 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$941,627,811 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,716,150 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,213,029 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,911,517 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,752,187 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,936,343 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,543,271 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$3,959,752 Vol.

3%

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Jon Stewart

$10,183,538 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,720,500 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$6,357,026 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,103,558 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,624,623 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,542,668 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,217,284 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$4,235,980 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,463,206 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,183,908 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,312,439 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,326,504 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,818,958 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,881,981 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,798,274 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,024,191 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,421,290 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,052,794 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,630,836 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,635,565 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,315,112 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$32,173,177 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,285,234 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,770,970 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,489,441 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,446,902 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,925,870 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,553,400 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,078,146 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,966,825 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,451,739 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,477,316 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,496,229 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,479,159 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,618,881 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,894,183 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,661,444 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field, buoyed by his national anti-Trump profile, recent interviews affirming a potential bid, and executive experience as California governor amid post-2024 introspection. This diverges from mid-March polls like Center Square (Harris 31%, Newsom 16%) and JL Partners (Harris 23%, Newsom 19%), where Harris tops hypotheticals on name recognition despite electability doubts from her 2024 defeat. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% energizes progressives but faces centrist mobilization against left-wing nominees, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% follows his viral February anti-Trump speech. Differentiators include governing records, ideological lanes, and battleground appeal; 2026 midterms, fundraising, and endorsements could consolidate support.

Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field, buoyed by his national anti-Trump profile, recent interviews affirming a potential bid, and executive experience as California governor amid post-2024 introspection. This diverges from mid-March polls like Center Square (Harris 31%, Newsom 16%) and JL Partners (Harris 23%, Newsom 19%), where Harris tops hypotheticals on name recognition despite electability doubts from her 2024 defeat. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% energizes progressives but faces centrist mobilization against left-wing nominees, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% follows his viral February anti-Trump speech. Differentiators include governing records, ideological lanes, and battleground appeal; 2026 midterms, fundraising, and endorsements could consolidate support.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field, buoyed by his national anti-Trump profile, recent interviews affirming a potential bid, and executive experience as California governor amid post-2024 introspection. This diverges from mid-March polls like Center Square (Harris 31%, Newsom 16%) and JL Partners (Harris 23%, Newsom 19%), where Harris tops hypotheticals on name recognition despite electability doubts from her 2024 defeat. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% energizes progressives but faces centrist mobilization against left-wing nominees, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% follows his viral February anti-Trump speech. Differentiators include governing records, ideological lanes, and battleground appeal; 2026 midterms, fundraising, and endorsements could consolidate support.

Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in a fragmented field, buoyed by his national anti-Trump profile, recent interviews affirming a potential bid, and executive experience as California governor amid post-2024 introspection. This diverges from mid-March polls like Center Square (Harris 31%, Newsom 16%) and JL Partners (Harris 23%, Newsom 19%), where Harris tops hypotheticals on name recognition despite electability doubts from her 2024 defeat. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% energizes progressives but faces centrist mobilization against left-wing nominees, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% follows his viral February anti-Trump speech. Differentiators include governing records, ideological lanes, and battleground appeal; 2026 midterms, fundraising, and endorsements could consolidate support.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $941.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.