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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$940,312,241 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$940,312,241 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,663,811 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,197,598 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,895,371 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,737,596 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,921,098 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,529,394 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$3,880,455 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$6,329,098 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,136,278 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,708,723 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,072,774 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,609,335 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,528,662 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,202,571 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$4,235,099 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,449,802 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,298,172 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,180,108 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,295,878 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,774,843 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,865,650 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,781,671 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,011,147 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,421,171 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,040,200 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,602,355 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,484,699 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,295,310 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$32,152,073 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,269,993 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,754,280 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,452,787 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,428,940 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,909,517 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,536,734 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,058,681 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,928,237 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,415,082 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,455,023 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,478,009 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,457,101 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,595,373 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,761,633 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,525,485 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his sustained national profile as a sharp Trump critic, robust California fundraising base, and term limit freeing him post-2026 midterms. Recent polls, including JL Partners (March 2026) showing Kamala Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, alongside a New Hampshire survey placing Pete Buttigieg first, underscore a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 8% draws from progressive energy and recent high-profile appearances like the Munich conference, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% highlights Georgia swing-state incumbency. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in battlegrounds, early primary state polling, DNC endorsements, and fundraising leadership, with governors' executive records differentiating from senators and House members.

Trader consensus favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his sustained national profile as a sharp Trump critic, robust California fundraising base, and term limit freeing him post-2026 midterms. Recent polls, including JL Partners (March 2026) showing Kamala Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, alongside a New Hampshire survey placing Pete Buttigieg first, underscore a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 8% draws from progressive energy and recent high-profile appearances like the Munich conference, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% highlights Georgia swing-state incumbency. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in battlegrounds, early primary state polling, DNC endorsements, and fundraising leadership, with governors' executive records differentiating from senators and House members.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his sustained national profile as a sharp Trump critic, robust California fundraising base, and term limit freeing him post-2026 midterms. Recent polls, including JL Partners (March 2026) showing Kamala Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, alongside a New Hampshire survey placing Pete Buttigieg first, underscore a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 8% draws from progressive energy and recent high-profile appearances like the Munich conference, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% highlights Georgia swing-state incumbency. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in battlegrounds, early primary state polling, DNC endorsements, and fundraising leadership, with governors' executive records differentiating from senators and House members.

Trader consensus favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his sustained national profile as a sharp Trump critic, robust California fundraising base, and term limit freeing him post-2026 midterms. Recent polls, including JL Partners (March 2026) showing Kamala Harris at 22% and Newsom at 19%, alongside a New Hampshire survey placing Pete Buttigieg first, underscore a fragmented field lacking a clear frontrunner. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 8% draws from progressive energy and recent high-profile appearances like the Munich conference, while Jon Ossoff's 5.5% highlights Georgia swing-state incumbency. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances in battlegrounds, early primary state polling, DNC endorsements, and fundraising leadership, with governors' executive records differentiating from senators and House members.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $940.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.