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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.7%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$939,136,177 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.7%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$939,136,177 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,641,088 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,178,839 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,878,621 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,722,778 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,511,465 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,905,736 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,283,269 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,803,925 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,694,815 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,067,036 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,041,089 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,590,497 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,513,695 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,187,541 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,433,857 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$4,231,463 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,180,017 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,280,402 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,748,668 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,851,857 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,265,792 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,763,759 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,990,135 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,420,513 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,579,274 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,017,088 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,464,700 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$32,108,597 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,399,599 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,278,265 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,255,043 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,734,030 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,436,029 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,754,513 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,515,732 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,037,488 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,893,950 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,368,087 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,434,697 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,448,659 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,433,969 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,570,171 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,737,525 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,496,705 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by an Emerson College poll on March 2 showing him leading early matchups at 20% amid post-2024 party soul-searching and Trump administration scrutiny. His executive experience, fundraising strength, and national anti-Trump posture differentiate him from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), whose progressive appeal energizes the base but raises electability doubts, and trailing governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) or Kentucky's Andy Beshear (2%), who boast battleground successes yet limited profiles. Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%) and ex-VP Kamala Harris (5%) lag due to regional focus and her prior loss. Consolidation hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes, polling shifts, and endorsements in this wide-open primary field.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by an Emerson College poll on March 2 showing him leading early matchups at 20% amid post-2024 party soul-searching and Trump administration scrutiny. His executive experience, fundraising strength, and national anti-Trump posture differentiate him from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), whose progressive appeal energizes the base but raises electability doubts, and trailing governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) or Kentucky's Andy Beshear (2%), who boast battleground successes yet limited profiles. Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%) and ex-VP Kamala Harris (5%) lag due to regional focus and her prior loss. Consolidation hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes, polling shifts, and endorsements in this wide-open primary field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by an Emerson College poll on March 2 showing him leading early matchups at 20% amid post-2024 party soul-searching and Trump administration scrutiny. His executive experience, fundraising strength, and national anti-Trump posture differentiate him from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), whose progressive appeal energizes the base but raises electability doubts, and trailing governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) or Kentucky's Andy Beshear (2%), who boast battleground successes yet limited profiles. Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%) and ex-VP Kamala Harris (5%) lag due to regional focus and her prior loss. Consolidation hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes, polling shifts, and endorsements in this wide-open primary field.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by an Emerson College poll on March 2 showing him leading early matchups at 20% amid post-2024 party soul-searching and Trump administration scrutiny. His executive experience, fundraising strength, and national anti-Trump posture differentiate him from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8%), whose progressive appeal energizes the base but raises electability doubts, and trailing governors like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro (4%) or Kentucky's Andy Beshear (2%), who boast battleground successes yet limited profiles. Sen. Jon Ossoff (6%) and ex-VP Kamala Harris (5%) lag due to regional focus and her prior loss. Consolidation hinges on 2026 midterm outcomes, polling shifts, and endorsements in this wide-open primary field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $939.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.