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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$928,356,072 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$928,356,072 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,225,723 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,042,842 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,737,849 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,579,275 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,341,023 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,775,709 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$3,393,636 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,540,103 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,664,663 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$5,994,678 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,807,137 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,499,649 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,115,668 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,408,120 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,066,164 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$42,811,153 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,309,145 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$10,981,198 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$20,667,080 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,453,396 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,585,638 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,567,873 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,321,991 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,684,811 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,317,863 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,133,598 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$31,951,890 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,868,167 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,041,243 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,520,064 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,279,734 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$36,930,594 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,659,742 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,114,527 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,223,727 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,032,342 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,355,786 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,823,628 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,303,483 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,258,973 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,219,627 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,104,438 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,447,078 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,206,375 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his national profile, fundraising strength, and executive experience amid a fragmented field post-2024 defeat. Recent mid-March national polls show mixed results, with Kamala Harris leading some at 22-31% but Newsom close behind at 19% or topping California primary surveys, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gains at 8% from high-profile international appearances signaling broader appeal. Jon Ossoff's 6% stems from Georgia incumbency and midterm reelection prospects. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for battleground governors and senators like Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly, early fundraising reports, and Iowa caucus polling, as the wide-open primary favors those proving electability in swing states.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his national profile, fundraising strength, and executive experience amid a fragmented field post-2024 defeat. Recent mid-March national polls show mixed results, with Kamala Harris leading some at 22-31% but Newsom close behind at 19% or topping California primary surveys, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gains at 8% from high-profile international appearances signaling broader appeal. Jon Ossoff's 6% stems from Georgia incumbency and midterm reelection prospects. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for battleground governors and senators like Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly, early fundraising reports, and Iowa caucus polling, as the wide-open primary favors those proving electability in swing states.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his national profile, fundraising strength, and executive experience amid a fragmented field post-2024 defeat. Recent mid-March national polls show mixed results, with Kamala Harris leading some at 22-31% but Newsom close behind at 19% or topping California primary surveys, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gains at 8% from high-profile international appearances signaling broader appeal. Jon Ossoff's 6% stems from Georgia incumbency and midterm reelection prospects. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for battleground governors and senators like Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly, early fundraising reports, and Iowa caucus polling, as the wide-open primary favors those proving electability in swing states.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his national profile, fundraising strength, and executive experience amid a fragmented field post-2024 defeat. Recent mid-March national polls show mixed results, with Kamala Harris leading some at 22-31% but Newsom close behind at 19% or topping California primary surveys, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gains at 8% from high-profile international appearances signaling broader appeal. Jon Ossoff's 6% stems from Georgia incumbency and midterm reelection prospects. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for battleground governors and senators like Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly, early fundraising reports, and Iowa caucus polling, as the wide-open primary favors those proving electability in swing states.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $928.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.