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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$938,322,665 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$938,322,665 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,618,410 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,159,108 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,862,785 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,707,264 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,495,780 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,894,012 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,250,924 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,739,230 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,007,920 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,682,489 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,021,048 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,577,096 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,500,319 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,172,019 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$4,228,407 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,422,255 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,179,838 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,273,549 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,252,500 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,840,247 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,730,828 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,750,356 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,979,343 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,410,972 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$32,091,203 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,004,689 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,562,946 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,446,655 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,719,325 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,366,834 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,256,028 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,242,052 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,417,649 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,738,593 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,502,617 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,018,195 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,880,251 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,347,175 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,415,462 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,436,076 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,415,187 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,550,424 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,713,960 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$31,478,412 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee on Polymarket, propelled by recent California polls showing him topping Kamala Harris by double digits among state Democrats—a critical early primary battleground with substantial delegates. This edges out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, buoyed by progressive fundraising strength, and Jon Ossoff at 6%, leveraging his swing-state Senate incumbency. The fragmented field reflects post-2024 uncertainty after Harris's defeat, with no dominant incumbent or clear frontrunner. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating governors like Newsom or Andy Beshear, national polling trends, early-state caucus dynamics, and donor endorsements ahead of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada contests.

Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee on Polymarket, propelled by recent California polls showing him topping Kamala Harris by double digits among state Democrats—a critical early primary battleground with substantial delegates. This edges out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, buoyed by progressive fundraising strength, and Jon Ossoff at 6%, leveraging his swing-state Senate incumbency. The fragmented field reflects post-2024 uncertainty after Harris's defeat, with no dominant incumbent or clear frontrunner. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating governors like Newsom or Andy Beshear, national polling trends, early-state caucus dynamics, and donor endorsements ahead of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada contests.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee on Polymarket, propelled by recent California polls showing him topping Kamala Harris by double digits among state Democrats—a critical early primary battleground with substantial delegates. This edges out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, buoyed by progressive fundraising strength, and Jon Ossoff at 6%, leveraging his swing-state Senate incumbency. The fragmented field reflects post-2024 uncertainty after Harris's defeat, with no dominant incumbent or clear frontrunner. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating governors like Newsom or Andy Beshear, national polling trends, early-state caucus dynamics, and donor endorsements ahead of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada contests.

Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee on Polymarket, propelled by recent California polls showing him topping Kamala Harris by double digits among state Democrats—a critical early primary battleground with substantial delegates. This edges out Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8%, buoyed by progressive fundraising strength, and Jon Ossoff at 6%, leveraging his swing-state Senate incumbency. The fragmented field reflects post-2024 uncertainty after Harris's defeat, with no dominant incumbent or clear frontrunner. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating governors like Newsom or Andy Beshear, national polling trends, early-state caucus dynamics, and donor endorsements ahead of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada contests.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $938.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.