Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Iván Cepeda Castro 44%

Paloma Valencia 39.3%

Abelardo de la Espriella 14%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$11,914,291 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 44%

Paloma Valencia 39.3%

Abelardo de la Espriella 14%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$11,914,291 Vol.

Market icon

Iván Cepeda Castro

$446,928 Vol.

44%

Market icon

Paloma Valencia

$559,858 Vol.

39%

Market icon

Abelardo de la Espriella

$550,791 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,308,296 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Claudia López (IND)

$517,887 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$91,667 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$570,173 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,006,089 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Roy Barreras

$704,986 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,207,043 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$442,070 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$380,154 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$1,117,092 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$498,016 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mauricio Cárdenas

$1,790,009 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Daniel Quintero

$410,597 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Enrique Peñalosa

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$288,021 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Following the March 8 congressional elections, where Pacto Histórico secured a legislative majority, Iván Cepeda has surged in polls to 37.5% first-round support per late-March Guarumo/Ecoanalítica data, buoyed by left-wing momentum amid voter concerns over violence and corruption. Paloma Valencia's win in the center-right Gran Consulta por Colombia, paired with her selection of Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate, propelled her to 19.9%, while Abelardo de la Espriella holds 20.2%, fragmenting the right-wing vote and preventing any frontrunner from breaking away. Trader consensus reflects this tight first-round dynamic—with top outcomes clustered 39-50%—hinging on potential opposition consolidation, debates, or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the May 31 ballot; a runoff looms as likely absent 50%+1.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$11,914,291
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Following the March 8 congressional elections, where Pacto Histórico secured a legislative majority, Iván Cepeda has surged in polls to 37.5% first-round support per late-March Guarumo/Ecoanalítica data, buoyed by left-wing momentum amid voter concerns over violence and corruption. Paloma Valencia's win in the center-right Gran Consulta por Colombia, paired with her selection of Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate, propelled her to 19.9%, while Abelardo de la Espriella holds 20.2%, fragmenting the right-wing vote and preventing any frontrunner from breaking away. Trader consensus reflects this tight first-round dynamic—with top outcomes clustered 39-50%—hinging on potential opposition consolidation, debates, or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the May 31 ballot; a runoff looms as likely absent 50%+1.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$11,914,291
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Related

Market icon

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

79%
Market icon

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

14%
Market icon

Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

98%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 44%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election" has generated $11.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.