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World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Iván Cepeda Castro 76%

Paloma Valencia 15.0%

Abelardo de la Espriella 2.8%

Juan Carlos Pinzón 1.1%

Polymarket

$1,807,702 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 76%

Paloma Valencia 15.0%

Abelardo de la Espriella 2.8%

Juan Carlos Pinzón 1.1%

Polymarket

$1,807,702 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$56,495 Vol.

76%

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Paloma Valencia

$209,929 Vol.

15%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$470,366 Vol.

3%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$39,354 Vol.

1%

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Juan Manuel Galán

$69,281 Vol.

1%

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Sergio Fajardo

$59,042 Vol.

1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo

$95,226 Vol.

1%

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Vicky Dávila

$243,153 Vol.

1%

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David Luna Sánchez

$151,506 Vol.

1%

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Gustavo Bolívar

$75,873 Vol.

1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$25,051 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López

$56,950 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo

$36,222 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$32,495 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$76,461 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$27,947 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras

$45,850 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus heavily favors Historic Pact candidate Iván Cepeda Castro at 75.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his consistent lead in late-March polls showing 35-42% support amid a fragmented opposition. Recent Guarumo-Ecoanalítica surveys (March 19-25) place him ahead of right-wing rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, both at 22%, with the field further split among centro candidates like Sergio Fajardo. Cepeda's momentum stems from the left's strong March legislative election results, securing the largest congressional bloc without a majority, and his March 10 announcement of indigenous Senator Aída Quilcué as running mate, appealing to key voting blocs. Valencia's 15% odds track her Democratic Center primary victory and pairing with Juan Daniel Oviedo, but traders anticipate Cepeda consolidating enough center-left support for a first-round majority over 50%, averting a runoff amid Petro's term limit.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,807,702
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus heavily favors Historic Pact candidate Iván Cepeda Castro at 75.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential vote, reflecting his consistent lead in late-March polls showing 35-42% support amid a fragmented opposition. Recent Guarumo-Ecoanalítica surveys (March 19-25) place him ahead of right-wing rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, both at 22%, with the field further split among centro candidates like Sergio Fajardo. Cepeda's momentum stems from the left's strong March legislative election results, securing the largest congressional bloc without a majority, and his March 10 announcement of indigenous Senator Aída Quilcué as running mate, appealing to key voting blocs. Valencia's 15% odds track her Democratic Center primary victory and pairing with Juan Daniel Oviedo, but traders anticipate Cepeda consolidating enough center-left support for a first-round majority over 50%, averting a runoff amid Petro's term limit.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,807,702
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Related

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

14%
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Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

95%
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Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

94%

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Frequently Asked Questions

" Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 76%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.