Market icon
Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

CA-04 Primary Winners

$10,901 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$10,901 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,431 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$2,687 Vol.

90%

Trevor Merrell

$0 Vol.

18%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

8%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

7%

Sharon Brown

$0 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$698 Vol.

6%

John Wesley Tyler

$457 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a rare well-funded primary challenge from Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party to the November general. Jones, a Silicon Valley-backed venture capitalist emphasizing progressive reforms like closing corporate loopholes, recently won a straw poll at an Indivisible Yolo forum, while Thompson leverages establishment endorsements from the California Democratic Party and long-standing ties to the wine industry and wildfire relief efforts. Close fundraising—Jones with higher receipts but Thompson more cash on hand—fuels trader focus amid a fragmented Republican field of six candidates that could enable both Democrats to advance in the Democratic-leaning district. Ballots mail May 4, amplifying early voting dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,901
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a rare well-funded primary challenge from Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party to the November general. Jones, a Silicon Valley-backed venture capitalist emphasizing progressive reforms like closing corporate loopholes, recently won a straw poll at an Indivisible Yolo forum, while Thompson leverages establishment endorsements from the California Democratic Party and long-standing ties to the wine industry and wildfire relief efforts. Close fundraising—Jones with higher receipts but Thompson more cash on hand—fuels trader focus amid a fragmented Republican field of six candidates that could enable both Democrats to advance in the Democratic-leaning district. Ballots mail May 4, amplifying early voting dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,901
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 90%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04 Primary Winners" has generated $10.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Primary Winners" is "Mike Thompson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 90%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.