Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha underscores a tight first-round race for Brazil's 2026 presidential election, with incumbent Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5 points—typically 45-48% to 42-44%—fueling trader consensus on narrow margins. Lula <5% tops at 37% implied probability, reflecting his incumbency edge and steady approval amid economic growth, but vulnerability to right-wing consolidation. Flávio Bolsonaro <5% follows at 24.5%, boosted by Jair Bolsonaro's recent endorsements and family base mobilization despite legal hurdles. Lula 5-10% at 17.5% accounts for polling volatility, while other victories trail as no challenger polls near 50%. Upcoming surveys and coalition shifts could tip balances before October 2026 voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Renan Santos Victory
7%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
2%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
4%
Other
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$0 Vol.
7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,289 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$1,674 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$0 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$0 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$657 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,377 Vol.
25%
Renan Santos Victory
$0 Vol.
7%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$0 Vol.
2%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$0 Vol.
4%
Other
$0 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha underscores a tight first-round race for Brazil's 2026 presidential election, with incumbent Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5 points—typically 45-48% to 42-44%—fueling trader consensus on narrow margins. Lula <5% tops at 37% implied probability, reflecting his incumbency edge and steady approval amid economic growth, but vulnerability to right-wing consolidation. Flávio Bolsonaro <5% follows at 24.5%, boosted by Jair Bolsonaro's recent endorsements and family base mobilization despite legal hurdles. Lula 5-10% at 17.5% accounts for polling volatility, while other victories trail as no challenger polls near 50%. Upcoming surveys and coalition shifts could tip balances before October 2026 voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$4,996End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha underscores a tight first-round race for Brazil's 2026 presidential election, with incumbent Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5 points—typically 45-48% to 42-44%—fueling trader consensus on narrow margins. Lula <5% tops at 37% implied probability, reflecting his incumbency edge and steady approval amid economic growth, but vulnerability to right-wing consolidation. Flávio Bolsonaro <5% follows at 24.5%, boosted by Jair Bolsonaro's recent endorsements and family base mobilization despite legal hurdles. Lula 5-10% at 17.5% accounts for polling volatility, while other victories trail as no challenger polls near 50%. Upcoming surveys and coalition shifts could tip balances before October 2026 voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,996End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha underscores a tight first-round race for Brazil's 2026 presidential election, with incumbent Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5 points—typically 45-48% to 42-44%—fueling trader consensus on narrow margins. Lula <5% tops at 37% implied probability, reflecting his incumbency edge and steady approval amid economic growth, but vulnerability to right-wing consolidation. Flávio Bolsonaro <5% follows at 24.5%, boosted by Jair Bolsonaro's recent endorsements and family base mobilization despite legal hurdles. Lula 5-10% at 17.5% accounts for polling volatility, while other victories trail as no challenger polls near 50%. Upcoming surveys and coalition shifts could tip balances before October 2026 voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
59%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
16%
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