Recent opinion polls from mid-March 2026, including IANS-Matrize and News18-Vote Vibe surveys, project the BJP-led NDA securing 80-98 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for BJP victory ahead of April 9 polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's high approval, bolstered by development initiatives and NDA alliances like AGP, contrasts with fragmented opposition efforts by INC and smaller parties amid alliance breakdowns. BJP's vote share surge expectations reinforce this positioning, though low-probability shifts could arise from last-minute controversies, weather disruptions, or turnout surges in Muslim-majority areas favoring AIUDF or INC. Results tally on May 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAssam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
BJP 92%
INC 4.2%
AGP 1.6%
BPF 1.4%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
BJP
92%
INC
4%
AGP
2%
BPF
1%
NCP
1%
NPEP
1%
CPI(M)
1%
CPI
1%
AITC
<1%
AIUDF
<1%
BJP 92%
INC 4.2%
AGP 1.6%
BPF 1.4%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
BJP
$2,005 Vol.
92%
INC
$1,269 Vol.
4%
AGP
$624 Vol.
2%
BPF
$1,037 Vol.
1%
NCP
$751 Vol.
1%
NPEP
$889 Vol.
1%
CPI(M)
$695 Vol.
1%
CPI
$840 Vol.
1%
AITC
$778 Vol.
<1%
AIUDF
$957 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Recent opinion polls from mid-March 2026, including IANS-Matrize and News18-Vote Vibe surveys, project the BJP-led NDA securing 80-98 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for BJP victory ahead of April 9 polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's high approval, bolstered by development initiatives and NDA alliances like AGP, contrasts with fragmented opposition efforts by INC and smaller parties amid alliance breakdowns. BJP's vote share surge expectations reinforce this positioning, though low-probability shifts could arise from last-minute controversies, weather disruptions, or turnout surges in Muslim-majority areas favoring AIUDF or INC. Results tally on May 4.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$9,845End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Recent opinion polls from mid-March 2026, including IANS-Matrize and News18-Vote Vibe surveys, project the BJP-led NDA securing 80-98 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for BJP victory ahead of April 9 polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's high approval, bolstered by development initiatives and NDA alliances like AGP, contrasts with fragmented opposition efforts by INC and smaller parties amid alliance breakdowns. BJP's vote share surge expectations reinforce this positioning, though low-probability shifts could arise from last-minute controversies, weather disruptions, or turnout surges in Muslim-majority areas favoring AIUDF or INC. Results tally on May 4.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Volume
$9,845End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent opinion polls from mid-March 2026, including IANS-Matrize and News18-Vote Vibe surveys, project the BJP-led NDA securing 80-98 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for BJP victory ahead of April 9 polling. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's high approval, bolstered by development initiatives and NDA alliances like AGP, contrasts with fragmented opposition efforts by INC and smaller parties amid alliance breakdowns. BJP's vote share surge expectations reinforce this positioning, though low-probability shifts could arise from last-minute controversies, weather disruptions, or turnout surges in Muslim-majority areas favoring AIUDF or INC. Results tally on May 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
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