Market icon
Politics·Dutch

Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Dutch

Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner

GroenLinks (GL) 100.0%

Labour Party (PvdA) <1%

Democrats 66 (D66) <1%

People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) <1%

Polymarket

$7,371 Vol.

GroenLinks (GL) 100.0%

Labour Party (PvdA) <1%

Democrats 66 (D66) <1%

People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) <1%

Polymarket

$7,371 Vol.

Market icon

Labour Party (PvdA)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

GroenLinks (GL)

$0 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Democrats 66 (D66)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

$3,512 Vol.

No

Market icon

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

$3,859 Vol.

No

Market icon

Volt Netherlands (Volt)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

Socialist Party (SP)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

JA21 (JA21)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

DENK (DENK)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

$0 Vol.

No

Market icon

BIJ1

$0 Vol.

No

Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van Amsterdam) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).GroenLinks' commanding 100% implied probability on Polymarket reflects official results from Amsterdam's March 2022 municipal elections, where the party secured the largest share of seats alongside its PvdA alliance partner, positioning it as the effective winner in trader consensus. Incumbent mayor Femke Halsema's strong leadership on progressive issues like housing affordability, climate action, and urban sustainability has solidified GL's dominance in this left-leaning city. Recent national polling stability and lack of major scandals further entrench this lead ahead of 2026 contests. Realistic challenges include a resurgent PvdA independent run, right-wing gains from JA21 on immigration, or unexpected voter shifts from DENK or D66, though current evidence shows minimal momentum for upsets.

Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van Amsterdam) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).
Volume
$7,371
End Date
Mar 18, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 4:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van Amsterdam) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van Amsterdam) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).GroenLinks' commanding 100% implied probability on Polymarket reflects official results from Amsterdam's March 2022 municipal elections, where the party secured the largest share of seats alongside its PvdA alliance partner, positioning it as the effective winner in trader consensus. Incumbent mayor Femke Halsema's strong leadership on progressive issues like housing affordability, climate action, and urban sustainability has solidified GL's dominance in this left-leaning city. Recent national polling stability and lack of major scandals further entrench this lead ahead of 2026 contests. Realistic challenges include a resurgent PvdA independent run, right-wing gains from JA21 on immigration, or unexpected voter shifts from DENK or D66, though current evidence shows minimal momentum for upsets.

Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van Amsterdam) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).
Volume
$7,371
End Date
Mar 18, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 4:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van Amsterdam) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "GroenLinks (GL)" at 100%, followed by "Labour Party (PvdA)" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner" is "GroenLinks (GL)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Labour Party (PvdA)" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Amsterdam Municipal Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.