Trader consensus favors Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) at 47.5% implied probability to win the most of Bolivia's nine gubernatorial races, reflecting its edge in first-round performances amid the highly fragmented March 22 subnational elections that yielded outright victories in four departments but sent five—Santa Cruz, Beni, Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija—to today's April 19 runoffs. No party secured a majority, underscoring the post-2025 MAS-IPSP collapse (now at 2.5%) and splintering of center-right support among LIBRE, Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (strong regionalist appeal in Santa Cruz), Unity Bloc (bolstered by La Paz win), and Popular Alliance. The race stays tight due to narrow first-round margins in runoffs, fluid voter consolidation without formal coalitions, and PDC's limited national reach despite President Paz's endorsement push; separation could arise from turnout in autonomy-focused Santa Cruz favoring Súmate, UNIDAD momentum in highland departments, or late cross-party endorsements before polls close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChristian Democratic Party (PDC) 43%
Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) 2.5%
Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) 0
Popular Alliance (AP) 0
$981 Vol.
$981 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Christian Democratic Party (PDC)
23%
Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)
3%
Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE)
48%
Popular Alliance (AP)
30%
Unity Bloc (UNIDAD)
34%
Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate)
36%
Christian Democratic Party (PDC) 43%
Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) 2.5%
Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) 0
Popular Alliance (AP) 0
$981 Vol.
$981 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Christian Democratic Party (PDC)
$297 Vol.
23%
Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)
$328 Vol.
3%
Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE)
$147 Vol.
48%
Popular Alliance (AP)
$0 Vol.
30%
Unity Bloc (UNIDAD)
$0 Vol.
34%
Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate)
$210 Vol.
36%
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Trader consensus favors Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) at 47.5% implied probability to win the most of Bolivia's nine gubernatorial races, reflecting its edge in first-round performances amid the highly fragmented March 22 subnational elections that yielded outright victories in four departments but sent five—Santa Cruz, Beni, Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija—to today's April 19 runoffs. No party secured a majority, underscoring the post-2025 MAS-IPSP collapse (now at 2.5%) and splintering of center-right support among LIBRE, Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (strong regionalist appeal in Santa Cruz), Unity Bloc (bolstered by La Paz win), and Popular Alliance. The race stays tight due to narrow first-round margins in runoffs, fluid voter consolidation without formal coalitions, and PDC's limited national reach despite President Paz's endorsement push; separation could arise from turnout in autonomy-focused Santa Cruz favoring Súmate, UNIDAD momentum in highland departments, or late cross-party endorsements before polls close.
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
Volume
$981End Date
Mar 22, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Trader consensus favors Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) at 47.5% implied probability to win the most of Bolivia's nine gubernatorial races, reflecting its edge in first-round performances amid the highly fragmented March 22 subnational elections that yielded outright victories in four departments but sent five—Santa Cruz, Beni, Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija—to today's April 19 runoffs. No party secured a majority, underscoring the post-2025 MAS-IPSP collapse (now at 2.5%) and splintering of center-right support among LIBRE, Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (strong regionalist appeal in Santa Cruz), Unity Bloc (bolstered by La Paz win), and Popular Alliance. The race stays tight due to narrow first-round margins in runoffs, fluid voter consolidation without formal coalitions, and PDC's limited national reach despite President Paz's endorsement push; separation could arise from turnout in autonomy-focused Santa Cruz favoring Súmate, UNIDAD momentum in highland departments, or late cross-party endorsements before polls close.
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Volume
$981End Date
Mar 22, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) at 47.5% implied probability to win the most of Bolivia's nine gubernatorial races, reflecting its edge in first-round performances amid the highly fragmented March 22 subnational elections that yielded outright victories in four departments but sent five—Santa Cruz, Beni, Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija—to today's April 19 runoffs. No party secured a majority, underscoring the post-2025 MAS-IPSP collapse (now at 2.5%) and splintering of center-right support among LIBRE, Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (strong regionalist appeal in Santa Cruz), Unity Bloc (bolstered by La Paz win), and Popular Alliance. The race stays tight due to narrow first-round margins in runoffs, fluid voter consolidation without formal coalitions, and PDC's limited national reach despite President Paz's endorsement push; separation could arise from turnout in autonomy-focused Santa Cruz favoring Súmate, UNIDAD momentum in highland departments, or late cross-party endorsements before polls close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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