Fed Rates Polymarkets

Fed decision in December?

$251m Vol.

$12m today

$12m Liq.

1,893

Ends in 5 days

93%

25 bps decrease

$251m Vol.

$12m today

$12m Liq.

1,893

Ends in 5 days

Fed Rates

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$16m Vol.

$2m today

$567k Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

75%

Kevin Hassett

$16m Vol.

$2m today

$567k Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

Fed Rates

Fed decision in January?

$2m Vol.

$189k today

$359k Liq.

1,369

Ends in about 2 months

70%

No change

$2m Vol.

$189k today

$359k Liq.

1,369

Ends in about 2 months

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

$26m Vol.

$150k today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 26 days

92%

3 (75 bps)

$26m Vol.

$150k today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 26 days

Fed Rates

Trump

Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair in 2025?

$7m Vol.

$238k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

84%

No announcement by December 31

$7m Vol.

$238k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$645k Vol.

$553k Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

24%

3 (75 bps)

$645k Vol.

$553k Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

Fed Rates

Fed rate hike in 2025?

$962k Vol.

$66.2k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

$962k Vol.

$66.2k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Fed Rates

Finance

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$132k Vol.

$117k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

41%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$132k Vol.

$117k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

$11m Vol.

$160k Liq.

420

Ends in 26 days

$11m Vol.

$160k Liq.

420

Ends in 26 days

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

Fed Rates

Finance

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

$5m Vol.

$205k Liq.

167

Ends in 26 days

4.6%

$5m Vol.

$205k Liq.

167

Ends in 26 days

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Sep-Dec)

$1m Vol.

$59.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

92%

Cut–Cut–Cut

$1m Vol.

$59.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Fed Rates

Finance

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

$445k Vol.

$68.0k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

73%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$445k Vol.

$68.0k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Fed Rates

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

$7.2k Vol.

$5.1k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

69%

>20%

$7.2k Vol.

$5.1k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

$59.5k Vol.

$254k Liq.

418

Ends in 3 months

54%

No change

$59.5k Vol.

$254k Liq.

418

Ends in 3 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Fed Rates

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$76.6k Vol.

$21.7k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

42%

$76.6k Vol.

$21.7k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Fed Rates

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

$1m Vol.

$34.1k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

$1m Vol.

$34.1k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9?

Fed Rates

Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9?

$38.8k Vol.

$26.9k Liq.

Ends in 4 days

No Change

$38.8k Vol.

$26.9k Liq.

Ends in 4 days

'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?

Fed Rates

'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?

$4.4k Vol.

$4.8k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

84%

No change

$4.4k Vol.

$4.8k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

Fed Rates

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

$20.0k Vol.

$23.6k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

65%

25bp cut, Dissents: >2

$20.0k Vol.

$23.6k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

Fed Rates