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Labor Statistics predictions & odds

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Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?

Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?

39%

Keith Sonderling

$44.8K Vol.

$14.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

84%

Morena

$1.5K Vol.

$136K Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

May Unemployment Rate

May Unemployment Rate

38%

4.3%

$508 Vol.

$26.8K Liq.

Ends in 19 days

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%

$6.3K Vol.

$1.2K Liq.

2

Ends in 9 months

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

28%

5.0%

$389K Vol.

$17.6K Liq.

13

Ends in 8 months

US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

32%

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$3.4K Vol.

$2.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

May Inflation US - Annual

May Inflation US - Annual

36%

≥4.4%

$28.1K Vol.

$79.0K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

How many jobs added in May?

How many jobs added in May?

41%

100k – 150k

$412 Vol.

$15.2K Liq.

Ends in 19 days

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

85%

Up

$25.3K Vol.

$8.9K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

May Inflation US - Monthly

May Inflation US - Monthly

42%

0.6%

$1.5K Vol.

$32.3K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

27%

$72 Vol.

$752 Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above __?

Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above __?

91%

$27.5B

$619 Vol.

$106 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

24%

$1M Vol.

$19.5K Liq.

66

Ends in 9 months

Number of TSA passengers May 18 - May 24?

Number of TSA passengers May 18 - May 24?

27%

18.5-19m

$200 Vol.

$422 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

49%

160-179

$8.9K Vol.

$20.9K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Number of TSA passengers May 11 - May 17?

Number of TSA passengers May 11 - May 17?

73%

17.5-18m

$1.1K Vol.

$419 Liq.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 18?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 18?

99%

$715

$1.9K Vol.

$3.5K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Zelenskyy # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

43%

80-99

$7.1K Vol.

$3.9K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Zelenskyy # posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?

35%

80-99

$833 Vol.

$2.3K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

White House # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

White House # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

66%

180-199

$37.7K Vol.

$7.9K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 105 active markets for Labor Statistics that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “How high will US unemployment go in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US recession by end of 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 77% chance to No. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Labor Statistics predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.