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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$957,013,429 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$957,013,429 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,422,200 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,447,847 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,239,625 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,863,852 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,012,043 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,624,008 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,613,225 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,276,971 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,776,194 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,774,112 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,571,989 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,319,437 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,714,287 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,674,589 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,869,227 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,970,374 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,186,691 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,403,275 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,484,081 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,238,210 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,945,546 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,874,733 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,115,172 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,209,253 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,773,409 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,481,410 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,331,022 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,553,162 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,442,911 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,888,016 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,860,174 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,518,341 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,772,192 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,698,192 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,701,801 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,550,239 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,269,698 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,825,961 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,399,930 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,723,064 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,715,063 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,196,435 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,408,731 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,300,726 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.6% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his sustained national visibility through a February memoir release, New Yorker profile, and early-state campaigning like his late February South Carolina swing urging midterm focus. A March 20 LA Times/UC Berkeley poll showed him topping Kamala Harris among California Democrats, contrasting an early March national survey favoring Harris and underscoring market skepticism of her post-2024 viability. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% draws progressive backing for her congressional profile, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects Georgia Senate incumbency appeal in battlegrounds. The fragmented field highlights risks from 2026 midterms, where standout primary wins, fundraising dominance, or endorsements could consolidate support amid ongoing party recalibration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,013,429
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.6% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his sustained national visibility through a February memoir release, New Yorker profile, and early-state campaigning like his late February South Carolina swing urging midterm focus. A March 20 LA Times/UC Berkeley poll showed him topping Kamala Harris among California Democrats, contrasting an early March national survey favoring Harris and underscoring market skepticism of her post-2024 viability. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8% draws progressive backing for her congressional profile, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects Georgia Senate incumbency appeal in battlegrounds. The fragmented field highlights risks from 2026 midterms, where standout primary wins, fundraising dominance, or endorsements could consolidate support amid ongoing party recalibration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,013,429
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $957 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.