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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 24%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$23,087,893 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 24%

Édouard Philippe 23%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$23,087,893 Vol.

Market icon

Jordan Bardella

$593,842 Vol.

24%

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Édouard Philippe

$371,782 Vol.

23%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,536 Vol.

9%

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Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

8%

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Dominique de Villepin

$784,128 Vol.

6%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$437,675 Vol.

4%

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François Hollande

$531,453 Vol.

4%

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Bruno Retailleau

$871,469 Vol.

3%

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Sarah Knafo

$932,576 Vol.

3%

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David Lisnard

$643,152 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Gabriel Attal

$815,703 Vol.

3%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$572,104 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$246,652 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$276,777 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$332,164 Vol.

<1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fabien Roussel

$809,766 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

François Asselineau

$1,052,253 Vol.

<1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$896,319 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$916,172 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Manuel Bompard

$684,882 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$419,085 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Olivier Faure

$634,505 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$818,344 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,232,643 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$739,471 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$889,526 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$720,667 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$997,916 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carole Delga

$676,160 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mathilde Panot

$999,586 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted a fragmented French political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, with National Rally president Jordan Bardella claiming grassroots victories in over 3,000 small-town council seats but failing to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille due to mainstream coalitions. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor solidified his status as the center-right frontrunner, narrowing the gap in first-round polls like Elabe's March 25-27 survey showing Bardella at 38% and Philippe at 25.5%. Trader consensus reflects this tight race amid a splintered left (Mélenchon at 12%, Glucksmann at 13%) unable to consolidate, with Marine Le Pen barred by her 2025 embezzlement conviction. Separation could arise from left-wing primaries, RN momentum in rural areas, or economic shocks influencing runoff dynamics, where Philippe edges Bardella in some matchups.

Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted a fragmented French political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, with National Rally president Jordan Bardella claiming grassroots victories in over 3,000 small-town council seats but failing to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille due to mainstream coalitions. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor solidified his status as the center-right frontrunner, narrowing the gap in first-round polls like Elabe's March 25-27 survey showing Bardella at 38% and Philippe at 25.5%. Trader consensus reflects this tight race amid a splintered left (Mélenchon at 12%, Glucksmann at 13%) unable to consolidate, with Marine Le Pen barred by her 2025 embezzlement conviction. Separation could arise from left-wing primaries, RN momentum in rural areas, or economic shocks influencing runoff dynamics, where Philippe edges Bardella in some matchups.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted a fragmented French political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, with National Rally president Jordan Bardella claiming grassroots victories in over 3,000 small-town council seats but failing to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille due to mainstream coalitions. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor solidified his status as the center-right frontrunner, narrowing the gap in first-round polls like Elabe's March 25-27 survey showing Bardella at 38% and Philippe at 25.5%. Trader consensus reflects this tight race amid a splintered left (Mélenchon at 12%, Glucksmann at 13%) unable to consolidate, with Marine Le Pen barred by her 2025 embezzlement conviction. Separation could arise from left-wing primaries, RN momentum in rural areas, or economic shocks influencing runoff dynamics, where Philippe edges Bardella in some matchups.

Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 highlighted a fragmented French political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, with National Rally president Jordan Bardella claiming grassroots victories in over 3,000 small-town council seats but failing to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille due to mainstream coalitions. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor solidified his status as the center-right frontrunner, narrowing the gap in first-round polls like Elabe's March 25-27 survey showing Bardella at 38% and Philippe at 25.5%. Trader consensus reflects this tight race amid a splintered left (Mélenchon at 12%, Glucksmann at 13%) unable to consolidate, with Marine Le Pen barred by her 2025 embezzlement conviction. Separation could arise from left-wing primaries, RN momentum in rural areas, or economic shocks influencing runoff dynamics, where Philippe edges Bardella in some matchups.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 24%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $23.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.