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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,043,208 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,043,208 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$8,291,567 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,804,314 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,402,227 Vol.

4%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,950,568 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,508,067 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,672,718 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,005,591 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,853,261 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,226,340 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,942,043 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,457,673 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,348,752 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,582,105 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,633,471 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,509,280 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,078,522 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,473,624 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,147,373 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,256,387 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,383,442 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,288,635 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,276,664 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,696,478 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,639,680 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,113,388 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,052,899 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,100,465 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,590,544 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,409,119 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,608,224 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,236,676 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,088,738 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,995,731 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,560,728 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,880,425 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Vice President J.D. Vance holds a slight edge in recent primary straw polls like CPAC's (53%) and New Hampshire surveys, buoyed by his position as heir apparent to President Trump, whose constitutional term limits bar a 2028 run, but trader consensus on Polymarket tempers this at 37% amid Trump's declining approval ratings dragging his prospects. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. commands 49% implied probability, driven by his high-profile HHS secretary role, surging Make America Healthy Again movement, and crossover appeal from his independent background, despite earlier denials of a bid and family speculation. Marco Rubio's 21% reflects a sharp rise from his Secretary of State tenure amid escalating Iran tensions, highlighting hawkish stances contrasting Vance's, with upcoming midterms poised to clarify frontrunners.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,043,208
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Vice President J.D. Vance holds a slight edge in recent primary straw polls like CPAC's (53%) and New Hampshire surveys, buoyed by his position as heir apparent to President Trump, whose constitutional term limits bar a 2028 run, but trader consensus on Polymarket tempers this at 37% amid Trump's declining approval ratings dragging his prospects. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. commands 49% implied probability, driven by his high-profile HHS secretary role, surging Make America Healthy Again movement, and crossover appeal from his independent background, despite earlier denials of a bid and family speculation. Marco Rubio's 21% reflects a sharp rise from his Secretary of State tenure amid escalating Iran tensions, highlighting hawkish stances contrasting Vance's, with upcoming midterms poised to clarify frontrunners.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,043,208
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $508 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.