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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.1%

Polymarket

$487,931,204 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.1%

Polymarket

$487,931,204 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,654,583 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$9,245,748 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,482,620 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,562,654 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,169,318 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,669,170 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,617,432 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,721,774 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,422,451 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,530,745 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,975,519 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,024,355 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,472,120 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,783,226 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,872,694 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,443,883 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,228,170 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,890,463 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,400,246 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,582,379 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,865,053 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,231,968 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,677,186 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,180,315 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,501,995 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,333,289 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,860,120 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,084,580 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,742,570 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,491,858 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,694,234 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,720,890 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,676,544 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,745,994 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,473,844 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,904,598 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, bolstered by his dominant 53% win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll among Republicans and incumbency advantages as heir apparent to President Trump's second term, which bars his reelection under the 22nd Amendment. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4%, reflecting his commanding leads in recent Democratic primary polls, including a March POLITICO survey in his home state over Kamala Harris. Senator Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has surged on GOP donor "draft" efforts and speculation tying his Secretary of State role to foreign policy visibility. With primaries over two years away and 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party momentum, the fragmented fields keep the race tightly contested among these top contenders.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$487,931,204
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability for the 2028 presidential election winner, bolstered by his dominant 53% win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll among Republicans and incumbency advantages as heir apparent to President Trump's second term, which bars his reelection under the 22nd Amendment. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.4%, reflecting his commanding leads in recent Democratic primary polls, including a March POLITICO survey in his home state over Kamala Harris. Senator Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has surged on GOP donor "draft" efforts and speculation tying his Secretary of State role to foreign policy visibility. With primaries over two years away and 2026 midterms looming as a key test of party momentum, the fragmented fields keep the race tightly contested among these top contenders.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$487,931,204
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $487.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.