Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat to a crowded primary field, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 84%, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean where Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2024 and Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester by 8 points. Daines endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who also secured backing from Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Sheehy, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats, led by former state Rep. Reilly Neill in a fragmented field, and independent Seth Bodnar trail in pre-withdrawal polls showing GOP leads of 20-30 points; ratings like Cook Political Report remain Solid Republican despite minor shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$39,195 Vol.
$39,195 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
84%
Democrat
8%
$39,195 Vol.
$39,195 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$24,226 Vol.
84%
Democrat
$14,969 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat to a crowded primary field, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 84%, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean where Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2024 and Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester by 8 points. Daines endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who also secured backing from Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Sheehy, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats, led by former state Rep. Reilly Neill in a fragmented field, and independent Seth Bodnar trail in pre-withdrawal polls showing GOP leads of 20-30 points; ratings like Cook Political Report remain Solid Republican despite minor shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$39,195End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat to a crowded primary field, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 84%, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean where Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2024 and Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester by 8 points. Daines endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who also secured backing from Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Sheehy, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats, led by former state Rep. Reilly Neill in a fragmented field, and independent Seth Bodnar trail in pre-withdrawal polls showing GOP leads of 20-30 points; ratings like Cook Political Report remain Solid Republican despite minor shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$39,195End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines's abrupt withdrawal from the 2026 Montana Senate race on March 4—just before the filing deadline—opened the seat to a crowded primary field, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 84%, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean where Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2024 and Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester by 8 points. Daines endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who also secured backing from Trump, Gov. Greg Gianforte, and Sen. Sheehy, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner ahead of the June 2 primary. Democrats, led by former state Rep. Reilly Neill in a fragmented field, and independent Seth Bodnar trail in pre-withdrawal polls showing GOP leads of 20-30 points; ratings like Cook Political Report remain Solid Republican despite minor shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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