Incumbent Steve Scalise's reelection bid in the solidly Republican LA-01 district, rated R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party ahead of the May 16 closed partisan primaries. Scalise qualified in February with $5.6 million cash on hand as of late March, vastly outpacing GOP challenger Randall Arrington and Democratic primary contenders Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, who hold minimal funds. He has won prior primaries outright with over 65% amid no recent competitive polling or scandals. While a primary upset, late-breaking health issues, or national midterm dynamics could challenge this, the district's historical GOP dominance and incumbency advantage present steep barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-01 House Election Winner
LA-01 House Election Winner
$31,887 Vol.
$31,887 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$31,887 Vol.
$31,887 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$15,477 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$16,410 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Steve Scalise's reelection bid in the solidly Republican LA-01 district, rated R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party ahead of the May 16 closed partisan primaries. Scalise qualified in February with $5.6 million cash on hand as of late March, vastly outpacing GOP challenger Randall Arrington and Democratic primary contenders Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, who hold minimal funds. He has won prior primaries outright with over 65% amid no recent competitive polling or scandals. While a primary upset, late-breaking health issues, or national midterm dynamics could challenge this, the district's historical GOP dominance and incumbency advantage present steep barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$31,887End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Steve Scalise's reelection bid in the solidly Republican LA-01 district, rated R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party ahead of the May 16 closed partisan primaries. Scalise qualified in February with $5.6 million cash on hand as of late March, vastly outpacing GOP challenger Randall Arrington and Democratic primary contenders Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, who hold minimal funds. He has won prior primaries outright with over 65% amid no recent competitive polling or scandals. While a primary upset, late-breaking health issues, or national midterm dynamics could challenge this, the district's historical GOP dominance and incumbency advantage present steep barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,887End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Steve Scalise's reelection bid in the solidly Republican LA-01 district, rated R+19, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party ahead of the May 16 closed partisan primaries. Scalise qualified in February with $5.6 million cash on hand as of late March, vastly outpacing GOP challenger Randall Arrington and Democratic primary contenders Lauren Jewett and Jim Long, who hold minimal funds. He has won prior primaries outright with over 65% amid no recent competitive polling or scandals. While a primary upset, late-breaking health issues, or national midterm dynamics could challenge this, the district's historical GOP dominance and incumbency advantage present steep barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions